Which of the four major asset classes is most vulnerable to an “unexpectedly hawkish” stance?

If the Fed really raises rates by 25 basis points in September, I believe the performance of the four asset classes will not be completely synchronized.
BTC is highly sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite, making it the most vulnerable in the short term to pressure from a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates; U.S. stocks will depend on valuations, with high-valuation technology stocks particularly sensitive to interest-rate changes. Gold should theoretically also face pressure from rising real interest rates and a stronger dollar, but if the market is simultaneously concerned about geopolitical risks and economic growth, gold could still attract safe-haven capital.
Crude oil follows a different logic. Oil prices are already at high levels, with inflationary pressures and geopolitical factors intertwined, which could in turn limit the Fed’s room to turn dovish. The recent breakthrough of $100 by oil prices has also become one of the key variables behind the market’s renewed bets on tighter policy.
Therefore, I would not simply interpret this as “a rate hike means all assets will fall.” What truly determines market performance is how large the deviation is between the actual outcome and expectations. #每周来晒 and #FedRateHikeMeeting
If rates are raised by 25 basis points but the dot plot is relatively dovish, risk assets may see the bearish news priced in; if the Fed simultaneously signals further rate hikes, that would be the real stress test.