Don't guess the answer before the meeting; see how the market interprets it afterward

The biggest focus of this Fed meeting is actually whether the market can continue trading hawkishness after expectations have already been fully priced in.
The market is currently assigning a probability of nearly 90% to a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, while a Reuters poll shows that 85% of economists also expect the Fed to raise rates. In other words, if the Fed does hike by 25 basis points, it theoretically would not be a surprise.
So after the meeting, I will focus most on three signals: First, whether the dot plot hints at a second rate hike this year; second, whether the press conference emphasizes that inflation risks are heating up again; and third, whether Treasury yields and the dollar index continue surging or instead show a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction.
If the 10-year Treasury yield continues rising and the dollar strengthens in tandem, BTC and U.S. stocks will still warrant caution in the short term, while gold could also come under pressure; but if yields fall after the rate hike is delivered, it would indicate that the market has already priced in the hawkish expectations fairly fully, and risk assets could see a rebound.
So my approach is not to place a bet in advance, but to wait for the market to provide the answer. Control positions before the meeting and confirm the direction afterward. I would rather miss the first bite than get taught a lesson by the market for trying to front-run it. After all, the harshest part of FOMC meetings has never been the answer, but the gap between expectations and reality. #每周来晒 and #FedRateHikeMeeting