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Brent and WTI Above 100 Dollars Why Geopolitical Risk Just Pushed Oil Through Its Most Important Level

For the first time since July, both global oil benchmarks have reclaimed triple digits. Brent crude futures pushed to 101 dollars and 34 cents, touching intraday highs near 101 dollars and 40 cents and in some sessions reaching as high as 108 dollars and 68 cents. The physical dated Brent benchmark, against which roughly two thirds of the world's physical supply is priced, has now traded above 100 dollars since September 3 according to LSEG data. West Texas Intermediate followed closely, trading around 94 to 96 dollars and settling with gains of more than 3 percent on the week.

This breakout is not being driven by OPEC production cuts or by stronger than expected demand from China. It is being driven almost entirely by a rapid escalation in military risk across two of the world's most critical shipping corridors.

On one side is the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict between the United States and Iran, now in its seventh month, saw its largest attacks on shipping to date this week. The United States destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers in a single operation, the most direct strike on energy infrastructure since the conflict began. On the other side is the Red Sea, where Houthi forces have stepped up attacks on Saudi oil facilities, forcing tankers to reroute and adding days to delivery schedules.

The physical market is reacting faster than the futures market, which is typical during supply shocks. Futures contracts reflect delivery a month out, while physical dated Brent reflects cargoes that need to be replaced immediately. When a buyer suddenly loses a cargo due to a tanker being hit, that buyer must enter the spot market that same day and bid for an alternative, which instantly pushes physical prices above futures.

Analysts who cover shipping are now warning of a deeper and more prolonged disruption. The broadening of the conflict threatens to risk even deeper disruption to oil supplies that had already left the market scrambling to adjust. That view was echoed by market strategists who noted that Brent pushing through the 100 dollar level will be seen by many in the market as a significant event in the current scheme of things, with implications far beyond energy.

Those implications are already showing up in equities and bonds. The S and P 500 closed lower as oil soared, while Treasury yields moved toward their 2023 peaks. Higher oil feeds directly into inflation expectations at a time when the Federal Reserve is already weighing whether to keep rates elevated. Goldman Sachs noted that the energy surge may make FOMC voters who had previously been ambivalent more open to hiking, as front month Brent rose 2 point 9 percent to 107 dollars and 66 cents and WTI rose 2 point 4 percent to 102 dollars and 48 cents in some late sessions.

For consumers, the question is what comes next for gasoline. With futures for Brent reaching 100 dollars for the first time since July, the path to 120 dollars is now openly discussed on trading desks if the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea does not de escalate quickly. For now, the market has established a new floor above 100, and traders are treating that level not as a spike but as the start of a new and more volatile regime for oil pricing.
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