#布伦特和WTI站上100美元 Oil prices breach the $100 mark, reviving inflation and recession concerns

International oil prices have surged rapidly recently, with both Brent and WTI crude rising above $100 per barrel. The increase in oil prices is driving up inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields, while the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week has risen sharply. Following the initial outbreak of the conflict involving Iran, markets have once again begun discussing the possibility of an economic recession.

The various reserve buffers that the world previously used to cushion the energy shock are being rapidly depleted. Institutions including Goldman Sachs are also reassessing the downside pressures facing the U.S. economy, as the chain effects of higher energy prices are being transmitted layer by layer throughout the supply chain.

Geopolitics drives up oil prices as old buffers are largely exhausted
As tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate again, neither side has yet signaled a willingness to negotiate. Last week, Brent crude prices surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since July, while the U.S. benchmark WTI crude also rose above the $100 mark. During the six months of the Iran conflict, disruptions to shipping capacity through the Strait of Hormuz caused an unusually severe disturbance in global energy markets, yet the global and U.S. economies continued to demonstrate resilience. Multiple countries released strategic petroleum reserves to fill supply gaps in the Middle East, while an Asian power reduced crude oil imports and restricted fuel exports. Combined with demand suppression caused by high prices, these measures kept the crude oil market broadly stable since March, with only brief spikes when tensions in the Persian Gulf intensified. Most of these buffers have now become ineffective. In the U.S., for example, strategic crude oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since the early 1980s. Meanwhile, the Asian power has eased restrictions on fuel exports and increased crude oil purchases, with imports rebounding from their ten-year low in June. Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have partially recovered, reaching roughly half to two-thirds of prewar levels, but fuel supplies remain severely insufficient. Refining capacity in other regions is unable to make up for the shortfall in refined petroleum products from the Middle East and Russia, leaving the refined-products market under far greater pressure than crude oil itself. In late summer, U.S. gasoline and diesel prices continued to rise. Normally, a seasonal decline in demand would push oil prices lower, but U.S. gasoline prices this year have reached a record high for the same period.

Diesel prices hit a record high as inflationary pressure hits the entire supply chain
As a core fuel for the real economy, diesel has been particularly affected by the price shock. After surpassing the historical high of $5.85 per gallon last week, the U.S. national average diesel price reached $6 per gallon for the first time. Gasoline prices directly squeeze households’ disposable income, while diesel prices raise freight and logistics costs, driving up the prices of all kinds of goods and accelerating inflation.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said: “Record-high oil prices are not common, and the economic impact of this round of diesel price increases will be delayed. Diesel prices affect every shipment of goods and could reignite inflation throughout the entire supply chain. This coincides with diesel’s seasonal price increase, further intensifying the pressure. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflict, diesel prices still have room to rise, and people need to prepare for higher consumer costs during the holidays.”

Rate-hike expectations jump as recession risk assessment shifts
Surging crude oil and refined-product prices are pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and long-term financing costs. Markets expect the Federal Reserve may respond to the inflation shock sooner by raising its policy rate at this week’s meeting, bringing economic recession back into focus. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said: “We lowered the probability of an economic recession over the next 12 months. When the Middle East conflict first began in March, we estimated the probability of a recession at around 30%; it has now fallen to 15%. But if we suffer another energy shock, the probability of a recession will rise again.”

Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. GDP growth of approximately 1.5% in the second half of this year, a forecast that does not factor in another major energy shock. Hatzius added: “If gasoline prices rise sharply, we will lower our economic growth expectations, as gasoline prices directly affect households’ real incomes.”

The latest data from the CME FedWatch tool show that traders expect an 86.5% probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points at this week’s meeting.

Conclusion
An economic recession is not yet the most urgent risk, but rate hikes have become the market’s main pricing scenario. Persistently high refined-product prices will pressure the U.S. economy from both the consumption and supply sides. If geopolitical conflict continues to drive up energy prices, the pressure from a rebound in inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy, further weighing on the U.S. economic growth outlook. Global capital markets will also continue to face dual volatility from policy and commodities. $XBRUSD