#BTC #ETH

#ShareWeekly
As of Sunday, September 13, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around the $77,200 area, while Ethereum is around $2,530. The total crypto market capitalization is approximately $2.71 trillion, with around $45.4 billion in 24-hour trading volume. Bitcoin dominance is around 57%, showing that BTC still controls a significant portion of market liquidity. These numbers tell me that the market is active, but it is also sitting at a decision point rather than presenting an obvious one-way trend.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW
Bitcoin has spent the recent period moving through a broad consolidation after a powerful recovery. Around $77K, BTC is neither extremely cheap nor clearly in a confirmed breakout. That makes liquidity and confirmation more important than prediction.
My first major BTC support zone is $76,000–$76,500. Below that, I would watch $74,500–$75,000, followed by the stronger $72,000–$73,000 region. If sellers push BTC below $72K with strong volume, the weekly structure would become considerably weaker.
On the upside, $78,500–$79,000 is the first important resistance area. A clean move above $80,000 would be psychologically important because round numbers often attract significant liquidity. Above $80K, I would watch $82,000–$83,500 and then $85,000 as the next potential expansion areas.
My preferred BTC setup is therefore confirmation-based.
If BTC holds $76K–$76.5K and starts producing higher lows, I would become more comfortable looking for long exposure. If BTC breaks $79K–$80K with increasing volume and successfully retests the breakout, the probability of continuation toward $82K–$85K improves.
But if BTC loses $76K decisively, I would not immediately try to catch the falling move. I would wait for the market to establish a new base. A trader does not need to buy every dip.
For a short-term trading plan, my hypothetical risk framework would be:
BTC long confirmation zone: $76,000–$77,000
BTC breakout confirmation: $79,000–$80,000
BTC upside targets: $82,000 / $84,000 / $85,000
BTC invalidation area: below $74,500 on a confirmed breakdown
These are scenario levels, not guaranteed prices.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW
Ethereum is even more interesting.
ETH is currently around $2,530, and recent technical analysis has identified the $2,350–$2,360 region as an important level. Reuters recently reported that ETH had rallied approximately 37% over ten days before consolidating around the upper part of its range, creating a potential bull-flag structure. The same analysis highlighted $3,040–$3,060 as a major historical resistance area and around $3,050 as a technical projection if the bullish structure continues.
For me, ETH's immediate battle is around $2,500–$2,600.
If ETH can maintain $2,450–$2,500 and reclaim $2,600 with volume, I would watch $2,700, $2,800 and then $3,000–$3,050.
If ETH loses $2,450, the market needs to be treated more carefully. Below $2,350–$2,360, the bullish structure would face a serious technical challenge.
My ETH scenario:
Support: $2,450–$2,500
Major support: $2,350–$2,360
Resistance: $2,600
Next resistance: $2,700–$2,800
Major psychological target: $3,000
Major technical resistance: $3,040–$3,060
A possible trading framework would be looking for confirmation around $2,450–$2,500 rather than blindly buying at market. A breakout above $2,600 with strong volume could open the door toward $2,700–$2,800. Above $2,800, $3,000 becomes much more realistic.
But again, the key word is confirmation.
SUNDAY VS MONDAY
This is where my strategy becomes more defensive.
Sunday can produce lower liquidity and misleading moves. A sudden BTC pump on Sunday does not automatically mean Monday will continue higher. Likewise, a Sunday dip does not automatically mean the weekly trend has failed.
Monday can bring fresh positioning, new liquidity and a completely different market reaction.
Therefore, I would avoid using Sunday candles alone to make a large position.
My plan is to mark Sunday's high and low, identify the previous week's high and low, and then wait for Monday to show which side of liquidity is being taken.
If Monday opens strong and BTC breaks Sunday's high with volume, I will watch whether price can hold above the breakout.
If BTC takes Sunday's high and immediately falls back below it, that can become a warning of a liquidity sweep rather than a genuine breakout.
The same logic applies to the downside.
A break below Sunday's low followed by a rapid recovery could indicate that sellers failed to maintain control. A clean breakdown followed by a failed recovery would be much more bearish.
This is why I prefer price confirmation over emotional prediction.
MACRO RISK — THIS WEEK MATTERS
There is another major reason why I do not want to over-leverage going into Monday.
The week of September 14–18 contains the Federal Reserve meeting, with the FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday and the policy decision scheduled for Wednesday. Current market expectations are heavily focused on the possibility of a rate increase, while recent inflation and employment data remain important inputs for the Fed's decision.
That means crypto traders should expect volatility.
BTC and ETH can react not only to crypto-specific news but also to US yields, the dollar, equity-market sentiment, Fed expectations and changes in liquidity conditions.
My biggest mistake in markets is something I always try to avoid: entering a position simply because I have a prediction.
A prediction is not a strategy.
A strategy needs an entry condition, invalidation point, target, position size and an exit plan.
MY TRADING RULES FOR THIS WEEK
Rule 1: Protect capital first.
I would rather miss a 5% move than lose 10% trying to predict the exact bottom or top.
Rule 2: Never use the entire account for one setup.
If the market gives a clean opportunity, I want enough capital available for another setup.
Rule 3: Reduce leverage during major macro events.
High leverage can turn a normal market fluctuation into a forced exit. During FOMC week, position sizing becomes more important than being right.
Rule 4: Watch volume.
Price moving from $77K to $79K without meaningful volume is less convincing to me than a breakout supported by strong participation.
Rule 5: Respect BTC dominance.
With BTC dominance around 57%, I would not assume every altcoin will outperform simply because BTC moves higher. Capital rotation needs to be confirmed.
Rule 6: ETH/BTC matters.
If ETH starts outperforming BTC while BTC remains stable, that can indicate improving risk appetite toward Ethereum and potentially broader altcoins.
Rule 7: Do not chase green candles.
If BTC suddenly jumps 3%–5%, I would rather wait for a retest than buy after an extended candle.
Rule 8: Do not revenge trade.
One stopped-out trade is information. Turning one loss into five emotional trades is a completely different problem.
MY MONDAY SCENARIOS
BULLISH SCENARIO:
BTC holds above $76K, reclaims $78.5K–$79K and then breaks $80K with volume.
In that situation, I would watch $82K first, then $84K–$85K.
For ETH, holding $2,500 and reclaiming $2,600 would strengthen the bullish case, with $2,700–$2,800 becoming the next zones to watch.
NEUTRAL SCENARIO:
BTC remains between roughly $76K and $80K.
This would be a range-trading environment rather than a strong trend. I would avoid entering in the middle of the range and instead wait closer to support or for a confirmed breakout.
BEARISH SCENARIO:
BTC loses $76K with strong selling pressure and fails to reclaim it.
Then $74.5K–$75K becomes important, followed by $72K–$73K.
For ETH, losing $2,450 would weaken the short-term structure, while a move toward $2,350–$2,360 would become the key test.
THE PLAN I WOULD PERSONALLY FOLLOW
If BTC remains above $76K, I remain cautiously constructive.
If BTC breaks $80K with volume, I become more bullish.
If BTC loses $76K, I become defensive.
If BTC loses $74.5K, I would wait for a stronger base rather than immediately buying.
For ETH, I want to see $2,500 defended and $2,600 reclaimed.
Above $2,600, I would monitor $2,700, $2,800 and $3,000.
Below $2,450, I would reduce risk.
Below $2,350–$2,360, I would consider the bullish structure significantly damaged.
I would also keep some capital in reserve. The best trade is not always the first trade of the week.
RISK MANAGEMENT
For traders using stop-losses, my approach is to place the invalidation level where the trading idea is actually wrong, not at an arbitrary percentage.
For example, if the thesis is BTC support around $76K, then a stop that sits directly inside normal volatility may be too tight. But that does not mean the answer is simply using a huge stop. The correct response is often reducing position size.
The same principle applies to ETH.
I would rather take a controlled 1R loss and preserve capital than turn a small trade into a large account drawdown.
My preferred risk per individual setup would remain small, especially during FOMC week. Traders should remember that leverage increases both potential gains and potential losses.
LIQUIDITY IS THE KEY
One of the most important lessons I have learned from trading is that price alone does not tell the entire story.
I watch price, volume, liquidity, open interest, funding, BTC dominance, ETH/BTC, stablecoin flows and the reaction around major support and resistance.
A breakout without participation can fail.
A breakdown without follow-through can become a recovery.
A strong move with increasing volume and successful retest is much more convincing to me.
This is why I never want to say “BTC will definitely go up tomorrow” or “ETH must crash tomorrow.”
Markets do not owe traders certainty.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The crypto market is currently around $2.71 trillion in total capitalization, with roughly $45.4 billion in 24-hour trading volume. Bitcoin remains the largest liquidity center, while Ethereum is showing an interesting consolidation structure after its recent strong advance.
For me, the opportunity is not about guessing whether Monday will be green or red.
The real opportunity is being prepared for both outcomes.
If the market goes up, I want to know exactly where I will enter.
If the market goes down, I want to know where I will wait.
If the market moves sideways, I want to preserve capital until the range breaks.
That mindset is more valuable than any single prediction.
MY FINAL VIEW
For Sunday, my bias is cautiously bullish above BTC $76K and ETH $2,450–$2,500, but I would not call the market aggressively bullish before confirmation.
BTC above $80K with strong volume would materially improve the bullish case.
ETH above $2,600 would strengthen its continuation setup.
BTC below $76K would make me defensive.
ETH below $2,450 would make me more cautious.
The most important levels I am watching are therefore:
BTC: $72K → $74.5K → $76K → $78.5K → $80K → $82K → $85K
ETH: $2,350 → $2,450 → $2,500 → $2,600 → $2,700 → $2,800 → $3,000 → $3,050
My strategy is simple: preserve capital, wait for confirmation, trade around liquidity, control position size, and never allow one trade to determine the entire week's result.#weeklyshare