Next week is Super Central Bank Week—Sao Ge tells you in one sentence which side, bulls or bears, is stronger:

At 2:00 a.m. on the 17th, the estimated probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25bp has reached 87-89%
After continuous low-volume, extremely narrow-range trading over the weekend, a sell-off hit tonight. Apart from gold and silver, which barely managed to hold their sideways movement, U.S. stocks and crypto assets all dipped slightly
The only advantage is that weekend liquidity was extremely low, and there was no significant increase in volume; it was more of a test
The market is already showing some signs of pressure
Could the 17th see wicks both up and down like when Friday’s CPI was released?
Three scenarios are expected:
① A rate hike plus hawkish remarks would strengthen the dollar, weighing on dollar-denominated commodities and risk assets such as gold and BTC
② A rate hike plus dovish remarks, implying only one hike followed by a pause. After a short-term sell-off, the probability of changing BTC’s right-side daily trend is low; a sharp plunge would be an excellent opportunity for spot buyers
③ If rates remain unchanged, the dollar would weaken, benefiting gold, BTC, and others
Forecast for the next 1-2 months:
If Monday’s move is a dip, prices will likely fall first and then rebound from Monday night through Wednesday night, followed by a major wick early Thursday. If the rate hike triggers a new round of daily K-line indicator repair, prices may gradually stabilize between October 7 and 16, laying the groundwork for a violent rebound in November
At that time, opportunities to build large spot positions can be sought
Recommendation: Strictly control position sizes. The only remaining position from this week is SUI; strictly follow the strategy for now
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All of the above is merely a forecast for market discussion and does not constitute any investment basis. Profits and losses in the secondary market are your own responsibility!
#SuperCentralBankWeekIsComing