Analysis: Most investors who bought BTC in the past 3 to 6 months are unwilling to take profits now and are instead choosing medium- to long-term trading.

Mars Finance reports that on September 13, analyst Murphy said on-chain data can provide a relatively clear understanding of the trading sentiment of representative investors at the current stage.

First, very few holders who bought BTC in the past 3–6 months have realized profits. In other words, most of those who bought at the bottom during this period are unwilling to take profits at current prices. This is the group of STHs (short-term holders) closest to LTHs (long-term holders). Traders who are not selling now are most likely pursuing medium- to long-term trades.

In addition, many holders who bought BTC in the past 6–12 months have realized losses. This group almost encompasses the coins accumulated throughout the entire bear market. Many of these LTHs are not true believers. They simply became long-term holders passively after their holdings fell into unrealized losses. As a result, they are the most unstable group during every major drop or rebound. From a macro-cycle perspective, BTC cannot fully enter its next phase until this type of selling pressure has been gradually released.

Recently, Murphy also wrote about why it is difficult for Bitcoin to break through $82,000. First, the coins held by short-term holders (STH) are distributed between $59,000 and $81,000. If the price breaks through $82,000, some short-term speculative capital will choose to take profits, creating the first layer of selling pressure.

Second, the largest concentration of coins held by long-term holders (LTH) is precisely between $81,000 and $82,000. When the price approaches the breakeven point, they may choose to exit, creating the second layer of selling pressure. The analyst believes that breaking through $82,000 will indeed face resistance in the short term, as the market needs time to digest differences of opinion and absorb the supply. Once the market successfully rebuilds momentum and breaks through, the path ahead will be wide open.