CPI Has Not Gone Out of Control, but the Rate-Cut Story Needs to Hit the Brakes First

U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, broadly in line with expectations, but core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, above the market’s previous expectation of 0.2%. This means inflation has not spiraled out of control again, but it is still far from falling to a level that would reassure the Federal Reserve. After the data was released, market pricing for a September rate hike heated up significantly, with some market probabilities briefly exceeding 80%.
Therefore, the biggest impact of this CPI report is not to directly change the long-term policy direction, but to cool the logic of “immediate rate cuts.” The current interest rate remains at 3.50%–3.75%, and the Federal Reserve is weighing elevated inflation against economic resilience.
In the short term, gold, BTC, and high-valuation technology stocks may continue to fluctuate, but an interesting phenomenon also emerged: U.S. stocks strengthened after the data was released, suggesting that some of the negative news had already been priced in. #每周来晒 and #8月CPI数据出炉
The opportunities I am watching more closely are leading AI stocks, high-quality technology stocks, and BTC after a pullback, rather than chasing rallies. What will truly determine the market’s direction is still the subsequent employment data and core inflation.