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The real opportunity may lie in the “expectation gap”
After the August CPI release, market expectations for Fed policy turned noticeably more hawkish, and the probability of a September rate hike rose rapidly. Interestingly, U.S. stocks did not see the typical “hotter inflation = tech stock plunge” reaction; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq instead rose about 0.8% that day.
Why? Because markets never simply look at the data—they trade the gap between the data and expectations. This CPI report was broadly in line with expectations. Although core CPI showed slightly more pressure, the worst-case scenario did not materialize, so some funds instead chose to re-enter after the bearish news was priced in.
The logic is similar for the crypto market. In the short term, BTC may face pressure from a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates, while altcoin volatility could increase significantly. But if inflation does not continue to worsen, and the market resumes trading on an economic soft landing, risk assets still have room to rebound. #每周来晒 and #8月CPI数据出炉
Therefore, I am currently more bullish on two types of opportunities: first, buying the dip in BTC after a pullback; second, leading AI, semiconductor, and cloud computing companies backed by real performance. Do not chase rallies or sell into declines based on a single CPI figure—the biggest market moves often come from gaps between expectations and reality.#