Bitcoin’s “Golden Cross” Failed Almost as Soon as It Appeared, While Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rose to 86%

Mars Finance reported that on September 12, Bitcoin’s daily “golden cross” was invalidated again shortly after briefly holding. On September 12, BTC rose to $79,837 at one point, pushing the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA, but then fell back to approximately $77,438, causing the 50-day EMA to drop below the 200-day EMA again.

This move coincided with a rapid increase in expectations for a Fed rate hike. The latest data showed that the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, higher than the market’s 0.2% expectation. CME FedWatch showed that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points next week had risen from approximately 69% after the CPI release to 86.5%. The market’s renewed repricing of rate-hike expectations put pressure on risk assets, prompting Bitcoin to give back its previous gains.

However, Bitcoin’s medium-term trend has not yet fully turned bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, so the golden cross is still intact. The daily ADX is 45, indicating that the overall trend remains relatively strong. Meanwhile, the 4-hour RSI fell to 43.3, showing that short-term momentum has cooled significantly.