#8月核心CPI超预期 August CPI exceeding expectations boosted expectations of a September rate hike. Bitcoin is indeed facing short-term pressure and a risk of a pullback, but its medium-term (fourth-quarter) bullish thesis has not been completely broken. Overall, the market is showing a pattern of “short-term pressure and medium-term accumulation of strength.”
I. Reasons for Short-Term Pressure (Bearish Factors)
1. Higher-than-expected inflation and rising rate-hike expectations: U.S. August CPI (3.4% year-on-year, 0.4% month-on-month) slightly exceeded expectations. Combined with the previously stronger-than-expected PPI, this led the market to reprice “sticky inflation” and “rate-hike expectations.” The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in September has risen sharply. The high-rate environment increases the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, suppressing the short-term performance of risk assets.
2. Surging oil prices and macro headwinds: Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international oil prices, triggering inflation fears. Combined with a stronger U.S. Dollar Index, this has caused short-term capital outflows from risk assets and heightened risk aversion, with Bitcoin bearing the brunt of the selling pressure.
3. Liquidation of leveraged funds and sentiment suppression: The market had already priced in “hawkish” expectations ahead of the CPI release. Some leveraged longs were liquidated in advance, and the short-term market displayed a weak pattern of rallies followed by retreats and choppy declines.
II. Medium-Term Supportive Factors (Bullish Factors)
1. Expectations have been partially priced in: The market had already fully digested expectations of “higher-than-expected” CPI and rate hikes, and some bearish factors had been reflected in prices in advance. This places certain limits on the scope for a further sharp decline.
2. Institutional capital continues to flow in against the trend: Despite the short-term pullback, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to record net inflows. Institutional capital has not exited across the board, long-term holders’ positions remain relatively stable, and underlying market support remains in place.
3. On-chain data and structural support: On-chain holdings continue to accumulate, and the medium-term upward structure at the daily technical level has not been completely broken. Some institutions view the short-term pullback as a shakeout and an opportunity to build positions after the bearish news has been fully priced in.
III. Key Upcoming Developments and Trading Recommendations
Key development: The market is waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 FOMC rate meeting, which will finalize the short-term interest-rate path and determine Bitcoin’s ultimate short-term direction (if a rate hike is delivered and the tone is hawkish, Bitcoin may face further pressure; if rate hikes are paused or the tone is dovish, a rebound may follow).
Trading recommendation: Short-term market volatility is intense, so investors should watch the loss or defense of key support levels such as 76,000 U.S. dollars and avoid blindly chasing rallies or selling into declines. In the medium term, they can focus on the recovery of market sentiment and changes in capital flows after macroeconomic data is released, while assessing risks rationally. $BTC