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Saturday Weekend Market Analysis📊
Over the past week, we experienced the most news-packed week
1️⃣ Nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations (9/5)
2️⃣ Liquid Network was hacked (9/7)
3️⃣ PPI exceeded expectations (9/10)
4️⃣ CPI was released (9/11)
5️⃣ Three consecutive SEC announcements + the CLARITY Act (9/11)
6️⃣ Ceasefire signal in the Middle East (the night of 9/11)
7️⃣ An 85% rate hike is now clearly priced in: CME’s probability of a 25bp rate hike in September rose from 69%→85%, with two hikes by year-end fully priced in
‼️This week, when the market started at 81,000 and everyone was calling for 100,000, we didn’t chase and told everyone to short at 83,000; when it fell from 81,000 to 76,000 and everyone was calling for a crash, we didn’t panic; when CPI produced a lower wick and a $2,000 V-shaped rebound and everyone called the bottom, we profited from shorting at the highs once again.
*Every wave of the market makes some people huge profits
Every wave also has others pay tuition for us.*
Next Tuesday’s FOMC rate hike is 85% clearly priced in—the award ceremony is only officially beginning!