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#AugustCPIDataIsOut

Following the release of the August CPI, I am now looking at Bitcoin specifically from a trader’s perspective, rather than simply as a news observer. Inflation in the US rose by 0.4% month-over-month, while the annual figure remained at 3.4%, with core inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. This means that inflationary pressure has not yet disappeared, and expectations regarding Fed policy may remain hawkish. For BTC, this is an important moment, as a stronger Fed stance usually puts pressure on risk assets. Therefore, I would not open a trade now solely because of the price’s initial reaction to the CPI. For me, BTC holding above key levels will be more important.

My main level right now is $80,000. If Bitcoin firmly holds above $80,000 and buyers confirm the breakout with volume, I would consider the $82,000–$83,000 zone as the next area. This is where buyers’ strength may begin to be tested, so I would not chase the price after a sharp impulse. If BTC breaks through this zone as well, the next target could be around $85,000. This scenario would become more realistic for me if demand for risk assets rises at the same time as pressure from the dollar eases.

But there is another scenario that I am also keeping in mind. If BTC fails to hold $78,000–$79,000 after attempting to rise, this could indicate that sellers still control the short-term movement. In that case, I would expect a return to lower support levels and would not rush to buy the dip. I would pay particularly close attention to the price reaction near $76,000. If this level is lost on strong volume, the risk of a deeper correction will increase significantly. In such a situation, preserving capital would be more important to me than trying to guess the exact bottom.

My trading plan currently looks like this:
1️⃣ Bullish scenario — holding above $80,000 → targets of $82,000–$83,000 → then $85,000.
2️⃣ Neutral scenario — BTC remains between approximately $76,000 and $80,000 while the market builds strength ahead of the next move.
3️⃣ Bearish scenario — losing $76,000 on strong volume → increased risk of further downside.
4️⃣ For an entry, I would wait for confirmation of the level rather than buying simply on a sharp green candlestick move.
5️⃣ I would determine the stop for each trade based on the chart structure, rather than placing it randomly at a fixed dollar amount.

Personally, I currently prefer the scenario of a gradual move upward, but only if BTC can turn $80,000 from resistance into support. The reason is simple: the market has already reacted to round psychological levels many times, so a brief wick above them is not enough. I want to see consolidation, a retest, and a reaction from buyers. If the price moves upward again after the retest, that would be a much stronger signal for me. In that case, I would view a move toward $82,000–$85,000 as the main short-term scenario.

At the same time, I am not ignoring the macroeconomic risk. Fresh data shows that inflation remains above the Fed’s target, while the market is already pricing in the possibility of a rate hike more strongly. Therefore, any strengthening of the dollar or rise in US Treasury yields could quickly worsen the outlook for BTC. That is why I would not use maximum leverage even in the event of a breakout above $80,000. The cryptocurrency market can completely change its short-term scenario within a few hours.

My personal forecast: if BTC holds above $78,000 and manages to firmly establish itself above $80,000, I see $82,000–$83,000 as the nearest target, and $85,000 in the event of a strong impulse. If $76,000 is lost, I would postpone buying and wait for a new support level to form. For me, the main thing right now is not to predict every candlestick, but to wait for the moment when the price itself shows the direction. A confirmed move, rather than emotions following the news, will be my signal to act.

#GateSquare

@Gate_Square

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