The hawks are here, and so are the opportunities.

What deserves the most attention in this CPI report is not the 3.4% figure, but that inflation appears not to be falling as quickly as the market had imagined. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. The rebound in energy prices was an important driver of headline CPI, but some service prices were also relatively strong. #每周来晒 and #AugustCPIDataReleased

This means it will not be easy for the Federal Reserve to shift smoothly toward easing in the short term. In particular, nonfarm payrolls had previously performed strongly, and the economy has not provided a reason that “large-scale rate cuts are necessary.” As a result, policy maneuvering ahead of the September meeting has clearly intensified, and the market has even begun discussing the possibility of another rate hike this year.

However, the biggest risk in trading is looking in only one direction. CPI meeting expectations is not, in itself, a new inflation shock; instead, it means the worst-case scenario has not emerged for now. The rise in U.S. stocks after the data release was a typical example.

If U.S. Treasury yields surge and then retreat, I believe technology stocks, the AI supply chain, and BTC will once again attract investors’ attention. BTC in particular could send a strong signal of “diminishing sensitivity to negative factors” if it can hold key support levels under interest-rate pressure.

The more complex the market becomes, the less one should bet everything on a single position. Opportunities are often hidden in volatility.