The real trading opportunity has arrived

The U.S. August CPI posed a rather interesting question to the market: up 3.4% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous reading; up 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations; but core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above market expectations. In other words, inflation has not spiraled out of control, but it has not cooled smoothly either. #每周来晒 and #AugustCPIDataReleased
For the Federal Reserve, this is the most difficult kind of data to handle. Employment has already shown resilience, while inflation remains above the 2% target. If it eases policy too early, it could reignite price pressures; if it continues tightening, it could put pressure on the economy and financial markets.
The market therefore raised its expectations for a September rate hike, but stocks did not suffer a panic-driven sell-off. Instead, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose about 0.8%. This shows that funds had already positioned defensively, and that the real trading logic is shifting from “Is CPI good or bad?” to “Have interest rates peaked?”
So at present, I am focusing more on two types of opportunities: first, waiting for Treasury yields to retreat after surging, and looking for opportunities to buy the dip in leading technology and AI stocks; second, watching whether BTC can remain resilient in a strong-dollar environment.
If BTC withstands the pressure from interest rates, it may instead be worth watching closely going forward. After all, truly strong market moves are never defined by the absence of negative factors, but by the inability to fall even when bad news arrives.