The August CPI print looks neutral at first glance, but I think the details matter more than the headline.

CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, exactly in line with expectations. Core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, showing that underlying inflation is still moving in the right direction.

So this isn't a report that forces the Fed to change course.

But it also doesn't give them enough evidence to become aggressively dovish.
The interesting part is the gap between headline inflation and core inflation. If energy-driven pressure remains temporary, the Fed can still focus on the broader cooling trend. If it starts spreading into other categories, the rate-cut path becomes much harder.

For markets, I think the next Fed comments matter more than today's CPI headline.
The question isn't whether inflation is falling. It's whether it's falling fast enough for the Fed.
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