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I opened my eyes this morning and the group chat was already exploding. 76,400—it plunged straight down with zero cushion. Everyone was wailing, and some people simply stopped talking.
Put bluntly, it was because the U.S. PPI blew up again last night. Inflation clearly hasn't been brought under control, and oil prices are still climbing. Everyone suddenly realized—oh no, the Fed might really raise rates tonight.
The PPI was just the warm-up. The real killer is tonight's CPI, the final inflation report before the rate meeting. The market is in an absolute panic, and the odds of a rate hike have already surged to absurd levels. That old man Woshi has been sounding hawkish since Jackson Hole, with one clear message: there will be no compromise on the 2% inflation target.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged above 5%. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin is getting higher and higher. In the short term, 75,800 is a key level; if it fails to hold, there could be another move lower. But on the other hand, if tonight's CPI unexpectedly cools, the long-awaited rebound could be especially fierce.
Fortunately, core PPI rose just 0.2% month over month, below expectations, so it did not trigger large-scale panic selling.
The blackout period before the rate meeting begins over the next few days, and volatility will only get greater. Bitcoin is now repricing for “higher rates for longer.” The storm isn't over, but opportunities often hide when everyone is panicking.
Although I personally expect core CPI to remain at 0.2%, trading cannot be based on luck. $BTC
I opened my eyes this morning and the group chat was already exploding. 76,400—it plunged straight down with zero cushion. Everyone was wailing, and some people simply stopped talking.
Put bluntly, it was because the U.S. PPI blew up again last night. Inflation clearly hasn't been brought under control, and oil prices are still climbing. Everyone suddenly realized—oh no, the Fed might really raise rates tonight.
The PPI was just the warm-up. The real killer is tonight's CPI, the final inflation report before the rate meeting. The market is in an absolute panic, and the odds of a rate hike have already surged to absurd levels. That old man Woshi has been sounding hawkish since Jackson Hole, with one clear message: there will be no compromise on the 2% inflation target.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged above 5%. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin is getting higher and higher. In the short term, 75,800 is a key level; if it fails to hold, there could be another move lower. But on the other hand, if tonight's CPI unexpectedly cools, the long-awaited rebound could be especially fierce.
Fortunately, core PPI rose just 0.2% month over month, below expectations, so it did not trigger large-scale panic selling.
The blackout period before the rate meeting begins over the next few days, and volatility will only get greater. Bitcoin is now repricing for “higher rates for longer.” The storm isn't over, but opportunities often hide when everyone is panicking.
Although I personally expect core CPI to remain at 0.2%, trading cannot be based on luck. $BTC