#美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期 Bitcoin falls below $77,000, down 3.165% in 24 hours as rate hike expectations roil the crypto market

Bitcoin has recently undergone a notable correction, with its price falling below the $77,000 threshold and its 24-hour decline reaching 3.165%. This round of price retreat is closely tied to steadily rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently prices in a 60.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, with only a 39.8% probability of rates remaining unchanged. Looking ahead to October, rate hike expectations remain relatively hawkish: the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 54.3%, while expectations for a 50-basis-point hike have even reached 17.3%.

Changes at the macro level are directly influencing the short-term direction of the crypto market. Crypto assets are typical risk assets and are highly sensitive to dollar liquidity. Once a rate hike is implemented, the appeal of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar will increase, suppressing overall market risk appetite and creating an incentive for capital to flow out of the crypto market.

After Bitcoin weakened in this round, the broader market was pulled down as well, with volatility among major altcoins increasing further and liquidation risks in the leveraged derivatives market rising accordingly.

However, it is important to clarify that 60.2% is merely a probability expectation formed by the trading market and does not equal the final policy outcome. Markets often price in negative news in advance, and even if a rate hike is ultimately implemented, a short-term rebound could occur after the negative news is fully priced in. It cannot simply be concluded that the market will continue falling unilaterally.

The market is currently in a period of contention: rate hike expectations continue to pressure prices, while the market is still watching for changes in subsequent economic data. Ordinary participants should beware of the risks brought by high volatility and avoid blindly chasing rallies; leveraged positions require even greater caution.

Two key areas are worth monitoring going forward: first, core U.S. economic data such as inflation and employment, which could revise rate hike probabilities at any time; second, statements and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which will determine the broader environment for the crypto market over the coming period.

Ultimately, all market projections must be guided by the Federal Reserve’s official decision. $BTC