🔥 Could there be an ALTSEASON in 2026–2027? What must happen fundamentally. Mechanics.

30-year bond yields are already above 5.34% — the highest since 2007. Despite the US Treasury increasing buybacks from $2 billion -> $4 billion -> $6 billion per operation.

Accordingly: DXY rises -> SPX/crypto/gold falls. What comes next?

The Treasury is absorbing the market through buybacks without printing dollars — this buys time, not a reversal. Each new yield high = a new test for the Treasury: $8, $10, $15 billion... And it has $958 billion.
 
Timeline:

Until November 3–4 (US elections) — a creeping rise in yields. Hot CPI (September 11) and a Fed rate hike (September 16, ~60%) will only accelerate the rise in bond yields. Result: Continued correction in SPX/BTC/Gold

November 3–4 is the fork (the US election on the 3rd, the Treasury announces its borrowing plan on the 4th):

Option 1. Peace in Iran → oil falls after the election → inflation cools, and yields decline on their own.

💥 Start of altseason:

Option 2. The war continues (Brent > $100) → the Fed will have to turn on QE, as in 2020.

Rates are already expensive, debt is nearing $40 trillion, and oil above $100 keeps inflation high — the Fed has nothing left to cool the bond market, leaving printing as the only option → dollar devaluation → crypto into space 🚀

This has happened before: in 2020, the Fed bought almost all new US debt — debt grew by $1.68 trillion, while the Fed’s balance sheet grew by $1.52 trillion. Inflation later accelerated to 9%. Printing had already saved the bond market at the cost of purchasing power. Altseason occurred!

Alan Greenspan, former Fed chair: “The United States can pay any debt because we can always print money”