#USAugustPPIHits5Point4Percent

PPI is once again giving the market reason to think. 👀
The US Producer Price Index rose 5.4% year over year in August, and that is a signal traders will find difficult to ignore. After strong employment data, investors received another argument in favor of the idea that inflationary pressure has not yet disappeared. Now the main focus is gradually shifting to the upcoming CPI report, which could significantly affect expectations regarding the Fed's further decisions. The hotter the inflation figures are, the more cautiously the market may assess the prospects for monetary policy easing. This means the upcoming trading sessions could be very volatile. That is why I am interested in which asset will react first to the new batch of macroeconomic data.

My choice is BTC.
I think Bitcoin itself could be the first to move, as the crypto market usually reacts very quickly to changes in investor sentiment and expectations. BTC trades around the clock, so the reaction to important economic signals can be virtually instant. If CPI shows that inflation remains high, the market could quickly switch into caution mode, and Bitcoin would be among the first to feel the pressure. But if the data comes in softer than expected, the situation could reverse just as quickly. In that case, BTC could become the first asset to catch the wave of positive sentiment. This speed of reaction makes Bitcoin the most interesting candidate for the first strong move in my view.

Ahead of CPI, I will be watching several key points:
• BTC's price action immediately before the data release;
• the reaction of the dollar and US Treasury yields;
• gold's behavior as a safe-haven asset;
• the movement of US stock indices after the macroeconomic data is released.
If Bitcoin starts moving actively even before CPI, it could indicate that traders are already pricing in a certain scenario. At the same time, I do not consider it right to open a position simply because of a desire to guess the market's reaction. Important data can trigger a sharp move in either direction, so in such a situation, discipline is more important to me than rushing into a trade.

Personally, I would rather wait for CPI than try to guess the market's initial reaction.
PPI has already shown that inflation remains a relevant issue, so the next indicator could become a real test for BTC and other risk assets. If CPI comes in higher than expected, I expect Bitcoin to react sharply first and will only then assess the subsequent direction. If inflation turns out to be weaker, this could support expectations of a softer policy and bring buyers back into risk assets. Gold will also be an important sentiment indicator in such a situation, while US stocks will show how willing investors are to take on risk again. For me, the main thing now is not simply to guess who will move first, but to understand the reason for that move. My bet on BTC remains unchanged: in my view, Bitcoin will be the first to show the market which way the wind is blowing. 🚀

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