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The day before yesterday, Bessent challenged yen shorts, saying that he himself was the market maker and had inside information from the Bank of Japan. Anyone unconvinced who wanted to bet on shorting the yen was welcome to come and fight.
Of course, Bessent's purpose in defending the yen is to defend US Treasuries.
Yesterday, the US Treasury Department announced that it would buy back up to $6 billion in long-term bonds, exceeding the $4 billion lower limit.
Normally, this should have been good news, and US Treasury yields should have fallen.
But Wall Street showed no respect whatsoever and immediately began dumping.
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged 20bp to 4.85%, while the 30-year yield returned to 5.3%. The entire yield curve shifted upward, suggesting rates will stay “higher for longer,” while US stocks plunged at the same time.
The reason for the market's contrarian sell-off is simple:
The $6 billion exceeds the buyback floor, showing that US Treasuries indeed have problems, but it falls short of the anticipated $10 billion ceiling, showing that the Treasury Department has neither the resolve nor the ability to maintain confidence in US Treasuries.
A one-track approach has turned into a squeeze from both ends!
Bessent, you have to understand this: If you can't even defend your own backyard, what is the point of defending the yen?
Besides, how much can Japan dump in US Treasuries? And how much do Wall Street firms hold?
The average daily trading volume in the US Treasury cash market is about $100 billion, while the futures market averages $920 billion, with peaks reaching $1.5 trillion.
The US Treasury holdings of various US financial institutions, including ETFs, commercial banks, insurers, investment banks, and others, amount to as much as $12 trillion.
So stop playing market maker for the yen and hurry back to shore up your own foundation first.
If you can't make the real market makers happy, they will use real money to tell you: No matter what, the forces engaged are $12 trillion versus $6 billion—the advantage is mine!
As for the stock market, it is being hit from several directions, and it hurts.😣$USDJPY