#苹果发布会

Foldable Apple Is Sweeter! The New Product Will Break Through the Revenue Ceiling

The era of foldable-screen phones has arrived, and Apple cannot avoid it either. Early this morning, Apple’s fall event unveiled the first foldable-screen phone, iPhone Duo, as scheduled. This marks the first revolutionary form-factor innovation since the iPhone was introduced.

I. First, how does the new product’s value for money look?

The iPhone Duo uses a horizontally inward-folding design, forming a portable 5.4-inch body when closed and offering a large 7.6-inch display when unfolded, approaching the display area of the iPad mini. Combined with iOS 27’s dedicated dual-screen multitasking interaction, it fills Apple’s gap in large-screen mobile devices.

In terms of pricing, the overseas starting price is $1,999, while the mainland China version starts at RMB 15,999. The top-end 2TB version reaches RMB 26,499, making it the most expensive iPhone model in Apple’s history. Preorders will begin on October 16, with official sales starting on October 23.

II. How significant will the impact on Apple’s performance be?

I believe its short-term contribution to Apple’s revenue will not be very large. Constrained by hinge production and flexible-screen assembly yields, the iPhone Duo is a high-end model produced in small batches. Ming-Chi Kuo forecasts shipments of only 500,000–1 million units in the second half of 2026. Bloomberg Intelligence has raised its full-year shipment forecast to 14 million units, corresponding to annual sales of approximately $28 billion. However, the internal substitution effect must be acknowledged: most buyers will be existing iPhone Pro Max users upgrading, rather than pure incremental demand. Institutional estimates suggest that around 60% will be replacement purchases from the existing user base, with only 40% representing purely incremental revenue. After adjustment, the iPhone Duo’s net incremental revenue in fiscal 2027 will be only $10–12 billion, accounting for less than 2% of Apple’s full-year revenue, making it difficult to drive a substantial rise in overall revenue in the short term.

For earnings, the foldable-screen hinge, UTG ultra-thin flexible glass, and titanium body will significantly raise hardware costs. Although the iPhone Duo is priced extremely high, its gross margin per device will be significantly lower than that of conventional Pro models. It will slightly drag down Apple’s overall gross margin in the short term. Institutions generally expect overall gross margin to decline by more than 1 percentage point in fiscal 2027, which is also the key reason the stock failed to surge on the day of the event.

Of course, in the long term, this is certainly the right direction for improving Apple’s performance and revenue. Over the past three years, conventional iPhone models have become trapped in price competition, with average selling price growth stagnating. The iPhone Duo occupies the RMB 20,000 price segment, directly raising the price center of gravity for the entire iPhone product line. Goldman Sachs forecasts that foldable-model shipments could rise to 34 million units in 2027, continuously lifting the overall iPhone selling price, allowing the phone business to break through its sales bottleneck and achieve steady revenue growth through product-mix upgrades.

III. How significant will the impact on Apple’s stock price be?

On the day of the event, Apple’s stock opened higher and then declined, closing down slightly by 0.28% at $315.34. This reflected both the realization of positive news and “selling the fact,” while also showing that short-term capital divergence has emerged: on one hand, investors are optimistic that the new product will open up a new high-end market; on the other, they are concerned that the high hardware costs of foldable screens will drag down overall gross margin. Over the next two months, the stock will enter a data vacuum period, with the core market battle focused on three points:

1. First stage (mid-to-late September): With no order data available, funds will repeatedly debate the risk of declining gross margins. The stock will remain range-bound, making a one-way surge difficult;

2. Second stage (October 16, when preorders open): Once preorder orders significantly exceed market expectations, order data will become a powerful catalyst. Funds will reprice the long-term value of foldable models, and the stock will see a rebound;

3. Third stage (official sales at the end of October): Production ramp-up, offline store sales, and the reception among initial users will determine whether this rebound can continue. If widespread negative feedback emerges regarding the crease or hinge durability, the stock will decline again.

IV. My plans for managing my Apple stock position

Given that U.S. stocks remain strong, combined with the recent strength of high-quality technology stocks, I believe Apple stock will mainly continue to rise amid volatility. This is currently a good opportunity to buy on dips. I will purchase some Apple stock with a small position and closely watch the support around $309–310, the 100-day moving average. If it breaks below that level, I will cut my losses and exit; otherwise, I will hold it for short-term swing trades. Short-term resistance is at $327–330, the daily Bollinger Band upper limit plus the previous short-term high, representing the first hurdle in this rebound. If it breaks through, I will consider adding modestly to my position.

What do you think of Apple stock? How are you planning to buy? Let’s discuss it in the comments. Wishing everyone prosperity every day! $AAPL