Today’s bullish catalyst has been priced in. Short-term bias is bearish.

Bessent is expanding buybacks of long-term U.S. Treasuries. The original intention was to suppress long-term yields. But the 10-year Treasury yield has now risen to around 4.81%, while the 30-year yield has risen to around 5.26%. There are still no clear signs of a pullback.

This shows that the bond market is voting with real money. The support brought by the Treasury’s buybacks of old debt is temporarily unable to outweigh crude oil breaking above $100, renewed inflationary pressure, and the pressure from concentrated new debt issuance.

There is also a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction today. Tomorrow, there will be another $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction. New debt supply far exceeds the buyback scale. Before Friday’s CPI and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, large funds have limited willingness to continue chasing prices higher.

As long as Treasury yields remain high and continue rising, rallies in AI and semiconductors will look more like opportunities to reduce positions. The macro conditions for a short-term bearish move are already in place.

But do not chase shorts at the lows. Wait for a rebound. Wait for support to fail. Then enter.