#BTC跌破8万美元 Is this crypto market move a rebound or the start of a new cycle?

Since mid-August, the crypto market, which had been dormant for months, has suddenly become active again. Bitcoin (BTC) quickly rebounded from just above $60,000 to around $80,000, then repeatedly battled around $80,000.
What is the nature of this rally? Is it a leverage-driven “Short Squeeze,” or the starting point of a new bull market? If the market continues upward, which sectors are most likely to become the next destinations for capital?
Combining Glassnode’s latest on-chain and derivatives analysis, the most reasonable answer is that this market move is essentially a short-term relief rally and leveraged rebound jointly driven by a softer macro environment and a derivatives Short Squeeze. The market has now returned to a clearly bounded range-trading pattern. Whether a genuine new cycle can take shape depends on whether ETF flows, stablecoins, and real on-chain trading activity can achieve sustainable, synchronized expansion.
I. Why did the market suddenly rise? Four forces at work
1. The macro environment has once again given BTC a reason to riseThe rally was initially driven by renewed concerns over U.S. fiscal risks and the “Debasement Trade.” The market has once again begun to worry that high fiscal deficits will pressure Treasury supply, thereby driving up long-term interest rates and raising doubts about the purchasing power of dollar assets and fiscal credibility. Against this backdrop, gold and non-sovereign assets such as Bitcoin have once again attracted capital, reasserting their safe-haven qualities as “digital gold.”
2. A record-scale Short Squeeze occurred in mid-AugustThis was by no means simply the accumulation of strong spot buying. Glassnode data shows that the market experienced record-scale short liquidations in mid-August, directly driving BTC to rebound approximately 26% from its low. Derivatives leverage served as an extremely important “acceleration catalyst,” forcibly pushing spot prices into a higher range through a chain reaction of liquidations.
3. ETFs provided real buying, but lacked sustained follow-throughAlthough spot BTC ETFs reached approximately $290 million in daily net inflows at their peak, daily turnover in the secondary market remained weak, holding near $3 billion. After the spot price was pushed above $80,000 in late August, it quickly ran into a dense area of underwater positions and selling from long-term holders. A rally lacking an explosive increase in secondary-market turnover displayed the typical characteristics of a surge driven by news but lacking sustained momentum (Velocity).
4. Regulatory reshaping and traditional finance entering the market: SEC rules and a “stablecoin reshuffle” in traditional bankingOn August 18, the U.S. SEC formally proposed new Regulation Crypto Assets rules, attempting to establish a clearer securities issuance framework and registration exemption mechanism for investment contracts involving crypto assets. Accompanying greater regulatory clarity was the accelerated entry of traditional financial giants: Reuters reported that 21 top global financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, and Deutsche Bank, had formed a joint alliance and planned to establish a joint venture this year, jointly launching a dollar-pegged compliant stablecoin in the first half of 2027. This indicates that the traditional financial system no longer views crypto assets merely as speculative instruments, but has begun fully utilizing blockchain to build underlying clearing and payment rails. This lays solid long-term institutional and capital expectations for compliant settlement layers, stablecoins, and RWA (real-world asset) infrastructure.
II. What comes next? A simplified long/short assessment based on on-chain liquidations and options structureAccording to the latest on-chain and derivatives data released by Glassnode, the current market exhibits a very clear structure at the micro level: “two-way liquidation boundaries and derivatives suppression.” Short-term bullish and bearish judgments should focus on the following key levels and indicators:
1. The first major resistance wall above: $83,000–$86,000The futures Liquidation Heatmap shows dense short liquidation orders accumulated above the spot price. After prices broke above $80,000 in late August, they encountered sustained selling pressure and fell back to around $76,000, failing to reach the densest short liquidation concentration zone at $83,000–$86,000.
Bullish confirmation signal: If BTC can break decisively above $83,000–$86,000 on strong volume, absorb the short liquidation positions in that area, and remain above the breakout level for several consecutive trading days, the market structure will see a fundamental improvement. Beware of false breakouts: Even if sentiment drives the price through psychological thresholds such as $90,000, if ETF net inflows, spot trading volume, and stablecoin market capitalization do not expand simultaneously, there should be serious concern that this is another “derivatives liquidity-driven false breakout.”
2. The first major support magnet below: $60,000–$63,000The $60,000–$63,000 zone below contains an intact accumulation area of long liquidations left by previous rebound attempts. In the derivatives market, bright-yellow zones of concentrated liquidations have a powerful “magnetic effect” on prices. If the breakout above lacks capital follow-through, the price could easily turn lower to liquidate this batch of leveraged longs.
3. Options barriers and cooling derivatives sentimentThe derivatives market likewise confirms the logic behind the stalled rebound:
Options Skew declines: Short-term options Skew has fallen from previously extreme exuberance, when call option premiums were excessively high, back into the neutral range, indicating that derivatives traders are no longer blindly chasing higher prices and that momentum has clearly faded.
$14 billion open interest (OI) expiration barrier: As the September 25 quarterly options settlement date approaches, open interest of as much as $14 billion is forming a huge Gamma resistance wall. Market makers’ hedging activity tends to lock the spot price within a specific range, limiting the room for a short-term upside breakout.
III. Criteria for confirming a new cycle: Look not only at BTC’s price, but also at “capital synchronization”
If BTC attempts to break through the resistance band and move toward higher targets, leverage-driven squeezing alone cannot sustain the move. Only when the following four indicators achieve “synchronized expansion” can we be certain that the market is evolving toward a new trend-based bull market:
Sustained ETF net inflows: Daily turnover in the secondary market must break out of its subdued state, demonstrating the persistence of institutional spot buying.
Stablecoin market-cap growth: Whether native crypto stablecoins such as Tether/Circle or compliant stablecoins promoted by the Wall Street banking alliance, overall stablecoin supply must reenter an expansionary path, representing the injection of genuine off-chain fiat capital into the crypto ecosystem. On-chain transactions and TVL expanding together: DeFi total value locked (TVL) and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume must rebound significantly, showing that capital activity is not limited to exchange balances.
A decline in the macro risk-free rate: If Treasury yields remain elevated, such as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield staying near 4.8%, the capital-attraction effect of risk-free assets will continue to squeeze the supply of funds available to high-risk assets.
IV. Long-term research direction: Focus on the infrastructure that “sells the shovels”
Under the Regulation Crypto Assets framework and the broader trend of Wall Street banks directly issuing stablecoins, institutional capital’s consideration will shift from “whether to allocate to crypto assets” to “which compliant and efficient on-chain channels to use for allocation.”
In the long term, the following four types of infrastructure offer the most sustainable points of leverage:
Settlement layer: Foundational public blockchains capable of supporting high-concurrency stablecoin settlement and large institutional-grade financial transactions.
Trading and protocol layer: Leading DeFi protocols capable of generating sustainable, genuine fee revenue through trading, lending, and derivatives businesses.
Oracle and data layer: Infrastructure such as Chainlink that serves as a bridge for bringing real-world financial data—Treasury yields, exchange rates, and stock prices—on-chain and provides trust anchors for on-chain finance.
Stablecoin and RWA infrastructure: Stablecoins solve the problem of moving capital on-chain, while RWA solves the on-chain mapping of real assets. The entry of traditional financial giants such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America will greatly accelerate this process, and connecting all three will drive blockchain to truly move from a “crypto asset market” toward an “on-chain financial market.”
In summary, BTC remains in a range-bound pattern trapped between the two major liquidation boundaries of $60,000 and $86,000. The rebound in late August confirmed the short-term explosive power following leverage unwinding, but constrained by the macro high-interest-rate environment and options settlement barrier, the market does not yet have the capital conditions to directly launch a new trend-based bull market. Closely monitoring the coordination between the $83K–$86K strong resistance zone and on-chain capital indicators is key to assessing the next stage of the market. $BTC