#BTC跌破8万美元 Bitcoin falls below $79,000! Ethereum rises alone against the trend as bulls and bears await “Judgment Day” ahead of CPI
Bitcoin failed to hold the $80,000 mark, falling about 0.6% over the past 24 hours to around $79,362. Ethereum, however, rose 0.2% against the trend to $2,495, making it one of the few “survivors” among the top ten major coins. The market is holding its breath for the September 10 CPI data and the September 16 FOMC decision—key moments that will determine the fate of the $80,000 mark.
As of September 8, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $79,352-$79,362, down about 0.57% over 24 hours; Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $2,495-$2,496, up about 0.20%-0.22% against the trend. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 69. Although it remains in the “Greed” zone, it has cooled from yesterday’s 71. I. Market overview: BTC loses $80,000, ETH stands out alone
On September 8, the cryptocurrency market came under broad pressure, with Bitcoin returning to $80,000 in a “one-day trip” before falling back again. After briefly moving above $80,000 yesterday, Bitcoin quickly retreated and oscillated between $78,000 and $79,500 this morning. Analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate within the $78,000-$82,000 range before the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate decision. The current price is around $79,300, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.69 trillion. Ethereum remained relatively resilient, closing up 0.2% against the trend. The ETH/BTC exchange rate edged higher, indicating signs of capital rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum. Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility is at a recent low, and historical experience suggests that low-volatility periods often signal an imminent market shift. Among altcoins, most weakened. Solana fell 1.13% to approximately $103.73, XRP fell 0.56%-2.23% to around $1.38, ZEC corrected 8.31% after its previous surge, and Hyperliquid fell 2.21% to $85.25. In terms of liquidations, $138 million in leveraged positions across the network were forcibly liquidated over the past 24 hours. Long liquidations accounted for 58.13% (approximately $80.23 million), 1.4 times the amount of short liquidations. Bitcoin liquidations led at $54.62 million, with longs accounting for 64%, while Ethereum liquidations totaled $39.58 million, with shorts accounting for 57%.
II. Why the pressure? Three forces weighing on the market
Pressure one: Expectations of higher Fed rates continue to rise The hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that “the fight against inflation is not over” continue to reverberate. August nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, three times the forecast, further boosting rate-hike expectations. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 66%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer than previously anticipated.
Pressure two: Strong wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the CPI release Investors are holding their breath for the release of the September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI data. If inflation exceeds expectations, rate-hike expectations will become further entrenched, and Bitcoin could face a test of the $80,000 mark; if the data unexpectedly weakens, the market may get some breathing room. Derivatives trading volume shrank 4.55%, while stablecoin trading volume also fell 10.55%, showing that the market has shifted to a wait-and-see stance ahead of the key data releases.
Pressure three: Security incidents and profit-taking A major $320 million hack occurred yesterday on a blockchain network associated with Bitcoin, weighing on market sentiment to some extent. At the same time, whales showed signs of net selling, while the $83,000 resistance level was not decisively breached. Bitcoin has risen approximately 25% cumulatively in August, and short-term profit-taking pressure is being released in concentrated fashion.
III. The logic behind Ethereum’s rise against the trend
Ethereum became one of the few major coins to rise against the trend today, with its relative strength supported by three forces: ETFs continue to attract inflows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative inflows of approximately $3.8 billion over the past three weeks, while Ethereum ETFs have likewise benefited from the continued return of institutional capital. Whales are still positioning. Despite short-term market pressure, some large investors are still building long positions in Ethereum, and the rebound in the ETH/BTC exchange rate reflects capital rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum. Technical support is in place. Ethereum’s current price has found support near the $2,438.85 pullback support level and remains within an upward channel that began in August. Analysts said ETH needs to close above $2,438 on the weekly chart to confirm a bullish outlook for September.
IV. Key price levels and technical outlook
Bitcoin: consolidating within the $78,000-$82,000 range BTC is currently consolidating within the $78,000-$82,000 range, with the direction still unclear. Key support: $78,700-$79,000: today’s low area $77,200: strong support zone identified by Bit $76,000-$77,000: this area could be tested if CPI is bearish Key resistance: $80,500: this level must be cleared before $82,000 can be tested $82,000: key short-term resistance $83,000-$86,000: the next target zone after a break above 82K.
Ethereum: $2,438 becomes the short-term lifeline ETH is currently trading around $2,495, closing higher against the trend. Key support: $2,438-$2,450: pullback support zone; a weekly close above this area would be bullish $2,400: psychological level; losing it would test deeper support Key resistance: $2,500: psychological round-number level $2,550: intraday high on September 7
V. Outlook: Three major variables will determine the direction
Variable one: September 10-11 PPI and CPI data (most important). This is the final inflation data release before the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate decision. If inflation exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will rise further, and Bitcoin could fall below $78,000; if inflation declines, rate-hike expectations will cool and Bitcoin could move toward $82,000.
Variable two: September 16 FOMC rate decision. The current probability of a rate hike has reached 66%. If a hike is confirmed, the $80,000 mark will face a severe test; if the Fed unexpectedly stands pat, the market could see a retaliatory rebound.
Variable three: Legislative progress on the Clarity Act. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the bill is expected to pass a Senate vote in September. If enacted, it will become a core catalyst for the medium-term market.
VI. Trading advice: Stay mostly on the sidelines before the CPI data
Short-term traders
The market is currently in a wait-and-see period ahead of the CPI release, with the direction unclear; caution is recommended.
BTC strategy: Watch the $78,000-$82,000 range. If the price stabilizes around $78,700 and the CPI data is favorable, consider entering the rebound with a small position; if it falls below $78,000, beware of the risk of a further decline toward $77,200. Stop-losses are recommended below $77,000.
ETH strategy: Ethereum is relatively strong; watch the $2,438 support level. If it holds, consider entering with a small position, targeting $2,500-$2,550; if it falls below $2,400, cut losses decisively. Medium- and long-term investors Macro headwinds remain—rate-hike expectations, uncertainty around CPI data, and seasonal weakness. These three pressures will be difficult to resolve in the short term. However, signals such as $3.8 billion in cumulative ETF inflows over three weeks and institutional capital positioning against the trend indicate that long-term funds have not exited. The $77,000-$78,000 area still offers allocation value from a long-term perspective. It is recommended to wait until the two major variables—the September 10-11 CPI data and the September 16 FOMC decision—are settled before reassessing allocation opportunities.
Key risk reminders:
CPI data risk: If inflation exceeds expectations, rate-hike expectations will become further entrenched, and Bitcoin could fall below $78,000
FOMC rate-hike risk: The probability of a hike has risen to 66%; if confirmed, it could trigger another round of selling
Repeated battles around the $80,000 mark: Whether this level holds or breaks will determine the short-term direction September seasonal weakness: Historical data shows that September is one of Bitcoin’s weaker-performing months$BTC