Post

Since early February 2026, Bitcoin has remained in a bear market after falling below both the True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.



The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has now dropped to $68.5k, below the True Market Mean at $75.8k. This means Bitcoin is trading below the cost basis of both recent buyers and the broader investor base.

Historically, this setup is linked to the capitulation phase, where market bottoms often form. As long as Bitcoin stays below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the market remains in a capitulation phase—creating opportunities for new buyers, but leaving it vulnerable to further macro-driven downside.
$BTC #BTCReclaims80K #Gate60MillionUsers #GateEventContractTradeSharingChallenge
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
BTCBTC+0.06%

  • 2

Add a comment
Add a comment

Comment
MemeArchaeologist
an hour ago
Below the two key cost-basis levels, this area really does feel a bit like capitulation.
0View Original
QuantModeler
an hour ago
Historical data supports this view, but macro risks remain, so I don’t dare go all-in.
0View Original
StopLossPoet
an hour ago
First Review
STH cost basis: $68.5k; TM average price: $75.8k. The current price is stuck in the intermediate vacuum zone, where liquidity is estimated to be very thin.
0View Original
View More