US August nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations! 162k jobs added, and the market suddenly got nervous

US August nonfarm employment increased by 162k, far exceeding market expectations of 56k and marking the biggest increase in nearly five months; the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate rose to 61.6%
The biggest impact of this data is not that it proves the US economy has suddenly “taken off,” but that it changes the market’s previous rate-cut expectations.
Previously, everyone was trading on cooling employment, Fed easing, and improved liquidity. Then nonfarm payrolls suddenly struck back: employment not only failed to deteriorate significantly, but instead rebounded strongly.
More notably, June and July employment data were revised up by a combined 55k jobs.
So in the short term, the market logic may shift from “when will rates be cut” to “will the Fed raise rates?”
Of course, year-over-year wage growth was only 3.1% and showed no obvious signs of spiraling out of control, leaving the doves some room.
The real key going forward is the CPI.
Nonfarm payrolls create the suspense, while inflation determines the plot.📈#美国8月非农超预期