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Bearish

162k jobs is a strong gain, but don’t rush to declare that the US economy is taking off!



After seeing US nonfarm payrolls rise by 162k in August, many people may have initially thought: Is the US economy getting back on its feet?
Not so fast.
The data is indeed very strong, far exceeding the market expectation of 56k, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. But a closer breakdown shows that employment growth was not broad-based. The food services and bars industry added 59k jobs in August, local government education added 42k, while the information industry actually shed jobs.
This means the US labor market remains resilient, but its structure has clearly become more divided.
Meanwhile, the number of long-term unemployed stood at around 1.9 million, accounting for 27% of all unemployed people.
So this nonfarm payrolls report is best described as “strong, but with weaknesses.”
For markets, the biggest problem is that it has once again increased interest-rate uncertainty. US Treasury yields rose, the dollar gained support, gold came under pressure, and risk assets also began reassessing their valuations.
In a word: The employment data looks great, but the Fed’s answer is not yet complete.
Next up: inflation data.#美国8月非农超预期 $AAPL
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