August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162k—should BTC and U.S. stocks be cautious? The real variable is interest rates

U.S. August nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, with 162k jobs added, nearly three times the market forecast of 56k; June and July employment figures were also revised up by a combined 55k.
What does this mean for risk assets?
Simply put: The market had been expecting the narrative of “economic cooling → Fed rate cuts → liquidity release,” but a plot twist has suddenly emerged.
Strong employment has prompted the market to start betting again that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates, or even consider a rate hike. After the nonfarm payrolls report, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries briefly rose to 4.38%, while the market’s probability of a September rate hike increased significantly.
Therefore, assets including BTC, the Nasdaq, and gold all need to be repriced in the short term.
However, I do not believe that a single strong nonfarm payrolls report means the end of the rally in risk assets. Year-over-year wage growth has already fallen to 3.1%, while the labor force participation rate has risen, indicating that the supply side of the labor market is also improving.
So what truly determines the market’s next phase is not whether nonfarm payrolls are strong, but whether strong employment can coexist with low inflation.#美国8月非农超预期 $TSLA