Mars Finance News reported on September 6 that Serenity issued a reminder that the fundamentals of the storage shortage have not changed and may even become more acute. The market will rotate from one bottleneck sector to another, but the companies themselves have not changed; what has changed are their valuations and narratives. Serenity added several pieces of evidence suggesting that the storage supply-demand gap could be worse than the market expects: The Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors said the storage demand shortfall had reached 40% to 60%, and prices could rise by another approximately 50% by year-end; SpaceX’s figures do not include approximately $1.3 trillion in capital expenditures by hyperscale cloud providers, meaning total spending could exceed expectations; SanDisk’s expected 80% gross margin could be sustained through 2030; and companies such as Samsung already have order visibility extending through 2031. Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are extremely volatile, with some of its positions showing unrealized gains of more than 270%, making it better able to hold them, but that companies’ operating fundamentals and short-term stock prices often do not align. The same logic also applies to other bottleneck areas, such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates: There is no need to assume that the shortage has ended after a rebound in stock prices. Storage prices and the supply-demand structure remain tight, while market sentiment and valuation narratives are rotating rapidly.

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NonceNina

2 hours ago

The 40–60% gap Nikkei is talking about, plus another 50% rise by year-end—that script feels familiar. Those who believed it last time are still trapped at the top.

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QuickExit

3 hours ago

The storage cycle really isn’t over yet, but the volatility is too brutal to hold through.

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FundamentalDetective

3 hours ago

Can SanDisk’s gross margin hold up through 2030? That expectation seems a bit too aggressive.

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DamenTrade1

3 hours ago

Interesting.

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PEComparer

3 hours ago

Demand from whales like SpaceX isn’t included in cloud providers, so the total may indeed be underestimated.

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AlphaShepherd

4 hours ago

First Review

The rotation has moved to optical modules and substrates; if you already hold them, don’t rush to switch positions.

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Serenity: Storage prices and the supply-demand structure remain tight; a short-term rise does not mean the bottleneck has been overcome

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