ZEC/USDT – Update as of September 6: Rally Continues, but Questions Remain

Current Data:

· Price: $1,161.12 (+14.50% in 24h)
· 24h High: $1,195.00 / Low: $998.98

Updated Indicators:

· EMA5: 1,023.48 / EMA10: 941.94 / EMA30: 770.31 – price is far above all, trend is extremely strong.
· BOLL(20,2): UB 1,121.48 / MB 819.51 / LB 517.54 – price is above the upper band (extreme deviation), which historically often precedes a correction.
· MACD: 26.14 (DIF 122.78 > DEA 96.63) – positive, histogram has grown from previous reading (was 17.06), momentum accelerating.
· OBV: 3,039,482.58 (MAOBV 2,980,195.35) – OBV above average, confirms capital inflow, but volume is low.

Key Takeaways:

1. Direction: The rally extended to $1,195. Technically the bullish trend remains – price above all EMAs, MACD rising. However, the break above the upper Bollinger band and low volume during a +14.5% move indicate speculative pumping without broad participation.
2. Bears and the $855 level: $855 is likely a previous high or key support. Price is now at $1,161, i.e., $300 above. Bearish expectations of a return to $855 are not yet confirmed – the trend is strong, and to drop to $855, price would need to break multiple support levels: $1,050 (psychological), $1,020 (EMA5), $940 (EMA10), and then $855. Without a clear reversal signal (e.g., MACD divergence or a sharp volume drop), targeting $855 is premature.
3. Where next?
· Bullish scenario: Holding above $1,120 (former upper band) opens the way to $1,250–$1,300. But this requires a pickup in volume (currently 17x lower than previous day). Without volume, the move may be "thin" and reverse quickly.
· Bearish scenario: A return inside the Bollinger bands (below $1,120) is a standard correction after an upper-band breakout. First support is $1,050–$1,020 (EMA5), then $940–$950 (EMA10). A deeper pullback to $855 would only occur on strong negative news or a broad market downturn.
4. Risks:
· Extreme overbought (price 40% above EMA30).
· Volume dropped while price rose – divergence that often precedes a correction.
· Open interest and liquidations are not visible, but with such a move, the risk of cascading long liquidations is high.

Are bears still waiting for $855?
From a technical standpoint, the current trend does not justify expecting $855 in the coming days unless there is a sudden external shock or a reversal by a large player. However, the risk of a correction to $1,020–$1,050 is very high. The $855 level remains a mid-term bearish target (weeks), but to reach it, all mentioned supports must first be broken.

Conclusion: The impulse is bullish but weakened by low volume and overbought conditions. The next few days are critical: if price closes below $1,120, a correction will begin. Holding above $1,150 with rising volume would give a chance at $1,250. The bearish scenario to $855 remains hypothetical for now.

Not investment advice.

$ZEC #zec