Information for reference only; this does not constitute investment advice

I. Federal Reserve/Macro: Speeches, Data, and Rate Expectations

1. Officials’ remarks

- Warsh (Chairman, Jackson Hole): Strongly hawkish; it is necessary to confirm that inflation continues to fall toward 2%, otherwise further monetary policy tightening will be necessary.
- Waller (Governor, swing vote): If August CPI shows cooling inflation, he will favor keeping rates unchanged in September; if inflation rebounds, he will support a rate hike, with clear divisions among officials.

2. Key data released: August nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, with 162,000 new jobs added, demonstrating strong labor market resilience and heightening rate-hike concerns.
3. Market rate pricing: The CME tool shows an approximately 56% probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September policy meeting (previous high: 60%). August CPI is the most important forward-looking data point this week and will directly determine the policy inclination for September. The current benchmark interest rate range is 3.50‑3.75%.
4. Key events this week: Federal Reserve meeting minutes and US August CPI inflation data.

II. Overnight Markets (Overseas Close)

- US stocks: Ended a three-session losing streak, with the three major indexes rebounding slightly; Dow 44,901 (+0.47%), S&P 500 6,388 (+0.40%), Nasdaq 21,108 (+0.24%); AI stocks diverged, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.89%.
- US Dollar Index: 97.91, strengthening on support from rate-hike expectations.
- Crude oil: WTI $65.16 (-1.35%); Brent $68.44 (-1.07%), weakening for a consecutive period and hitting the lowest level of this cycle.
- Gold (COMEX gold futures): $3,335.6/oz, -1.10%; a stronger dollar and rate-hike expectations pressured gold prices.

III. Crypto Market Focus

1. ETF Fund Flows (US Spot BTC ETFs)

- Last week (through 9‑05), weekly net inflows totaled $986.9 million, with combined net inflows of $3.8 billion over the past three weeks, marking the strongest sustained inflow cycle of 2026.
- Daily net inflows on 9‑03 reached $731 million (the second-highest of the year, led mainly by IBIT); inflows fell back to $174.6 million on 9‑05, but institutional buying remained resilient amid the price pullback.
- Total AUM was approximately $101.3 billion; spot ETH ETFs recorded modest net inflows of $26.46 million, weaker than BTC.

2. Regulatory Developments

- United States: The market is awaiting progress on crypto legislation in Congress, with no major new legislation enacted in the short term; rising rate-hike expectations have made macro conditions the primary constraint on the crypto market.
- Mainland China: Cryptocurrency trading and speculative activities are not protected by law, and participants are reminded of the risks.
- Hong Kong: The Bitcoin + gold dual ETF continues trading, while compliant products continue to expand.

3. Major Project Announcements

No industry-level major protocol upgrades or mainnet launch announcements; HTX previously suffered a hacker DDoS attack, but the platform has recovered and no assets were stolen.

4. Large On-Chain Transfers

- Institutional ETFs continued absorbing spot BTC; net outflows from exchanges edged higher, while some whale addresses made small, batch transfers out at elevated levels; there were no multi-billion-dollar-scale extreme sell-off transfers.
- BTC is currently around $79,900, repeatedly fluctuating around the $80,000 level, driven in both directions by macro expectations and ETF flows.

IV. Key Items to Watch Today

1. US CPI data; Federal Reserve officials’ speeches
2. Volatility in the US dollar and Treasury yields
3. Daily BTC ETF fund-flow changes; battle for the $80,000 level

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