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My prediction-market bet—Alcaraz could win the US Open men’s singles title
Based on the current 2026 US Open draw, player form, and tournament progress, Alcaraz is the hottest favorite to win this year’s US Open men’s singles title, followed by home player Ben Shelton. French rising star Arthur Fils also has a chance to pull off an upset and win the title.
Carlos Alcaraz
As the defending champion, he returned after more than four months out with an injury and defeated Safiullin in straight sets in the first round, showing a level of form far beyond expectations. His competitiveness on hard courts has not noticeably declined during his absence.
All former champions in this year’s US Open are concentrated in the bottom half of the draw, while his path to the title avoids most of the emerging young stars in the top half, giving him a comparatively easier draw.
He won the US Open men’s singles title in 2022 and 2025, becoming the only player since Federer to win twice at Flushing Meadows. He is exceptionally well suited to the US Open’s fast hard courts.
Ben Shelton
At 23, he has hit a breakthrough in form this season, winning four singles titles and successfully defending his Canadian Open title. He is currently ranked No. 9 in the world and is the highest-ranked American men’s singles player.
He reached the US Open men’s singles semifinals at age 20, becoming the youngest American to reach the US Open men’s singles semifinals since Chang in 1992. The support of the home crowd should further amplify his serving and forehand attacking advantages.
He has posted a 33-13 record this season, with a hard-court win rate far exceeding that of previous years. He is now capable of going all the way at a Grand Slam.
Arthur Fils
At 22, he just won his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, sweeping Tiafoe in the final. He is 10-0 in deciding sets this season and has dominated American opponents with an 8-0 record.
His first-serve points won rate is as high as 94.3%. Combined with his exceptional movement and powerful forehand, he has almost no obvious weaknesses on fast hard courts and is the biggest dark-horse candidate in this year’s tournament.
With Sinner withdrawing due to injury before the tournament and Djokovic suffering a shock first-round exit, the number of top players in the top half has been significantly reduced. The competitive environment in Fils’s half is clearly more favorable, giving him a chance to break through all the way to the final.
Key factors ruling out other contenders
As a four-time US Open champion, Djokovic battled for five sets in the first round before losing to Argentine player Navone and exiting the tournament. His bid for a 25th Grand Slam title came to an early end.
World No. 1 Sinner withdrew from the tournament due to injury before it began, directly ending his bid for the US Open title.
After 39-year-old Djokovic’s exit, the veteran contingent no longer has enough physical reserves to sustain seven high-intensity five-set matches. The new generation has become the absolute main force in the title race at this year’s US Open.
Based on the above reasoning, I recommend placing a medium-sized bet on Alcaraz to win the title. Wishing everyone prosperity every day!
Based on the current 2026 US Open draw, player form, and tournament progress, Alcaraz is the hottest favorite to win this year’s US Open men’s singles title, followed by home player Ben Shelton. French rising star Arthur Fils also has a chance to pull off an upset and win the title.
Carlos Alcaraz
As the defending champion, he returned after more than four months out with an injury and defeated Safiullin in straight sets in the first round, showing a level of form far beyond expectations. His competitiveness on hard courts has not noticeably declined during his absence.
All former champions in this year’s US Open are concentrated in the bottom half of the draw, while his path to the title avoids most of the emerging young stars in the top half, giving him a comparatively easier draw.
He won the US Open men’s singles title in 2022 and 2025, becoming the only player since Federer to win twice at Flushing Meadows. He is exceptionally well suited to the US Open’s fast hard courts.
Ben Shelton
At 23, he has hit a breakthrough in form this season, winning four singles titles and successfully defending his Canadian Open title. He is currently ranked No. 9 in the world and is the highest-ranked American men’s singles player.
He reached the US Open men’s singles semifinals at age 20, becoming the youngest American to reach the US Open men’s singles semifinals since Chang in 1992. The support of the home crowd should further amplify his serving and forehand attacking advantages.
He has posted a 33-13 record this season, with a hard-court win rate far exceeding that of previous years. He is now capable of going all the way at a Grand Slam.
Arthur Fils
At 22, he just won his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, sweeping Tiafoe in the final. He is 10-0 in deciding sets this season and has dominated American opponents with an 8-0 record.
His first-serve points won rate is as high as 94.3%. Combined with his exceptional movement and powerful forehand, he has almost no obvious weaknesses on fast hard courts and is the biggest dark-horse candidate in this year’s tournament.
With Sinner withdrawing due to injury before the tournament and Djokovic suffering a shock first-round exit, the number of top players in the top half has been significantly reduced. The competitive environment in Fils’s half is clearly more favorable, giving him a chance to break through all the way to the final.
Key factors ruling out other contenders
As a four-time US Open champion, Djokovic battled for five sets in the first round before losing to Argentine player Navone and exiting the tournament. His bid for a 25th Grand Slam title came to an early end.
World No. 1 Sinner withdrew from the tournament due to injury before it began, directly ending his bid for the US Open title.
After 39-year-old Djokovic’s exit, the veteran contingent no longer has enough physical reserves to sustain seven high-intensity five-set matches. The new generation has become the absolute main force in the title race at this year’s US Open.
Based on the above reasoning, I recommend placing a medium-sized bet on Alcaraz to win the title. Wishing everyone prosperity every day!