#WTI原油 Could Oil Prices Face a “Major Collapse”? Bessent: Crude Could Fall to $40-$50 After Iran Conflict Ends

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that once the Iran conflict ends, international oil prices could plunge sharply, potentially falling to $40-$50 per barrel. As energy prices retreat, global bond yields, which have recently been driven higher by rising oil prices and inflation concerns, may also decline.
He said in an interview Friday that once the current Iran conflict ends, the global oil market could shift back to a situation of clear oversupply. Bessent said: “We will ultimately get through this Iran conflict, and I expect oil prices to decline when that happens.”
He further said that as a large amount of new supply enters the market in the future, “crude could fall to $50, or even $40,” at which point the oil market could face a very significant supply glut.
However, Bessent did not provide a specific timeline for when the Iran conflict would end. At present, there are still no clear signs that the fighting is coming to an end.
This week, a Republican member of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee even described the current military situation as being “at a stalemate.” International energy prices rose significantly after the U.S. and Iran launched military strikes against each other again this week.
On Friday, Brent crude was still trading above $95 per barrel, near its highest level since July; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained around $91 per barrel. This means that if Bessent’s prediction for postwar oil prices ultimately comes true, crude prices could fall by nearly half from current levels. The sustained rise in oil prices recently has become one of the major pressures facing global bond markets.
Rising energy prices have heightened market concerns about a renewed acceleration in inflation and pushed investors to raise their expectations for future interest rates. This week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries briefly rose to its highest level since 2023, while benchmark government bond yields in many countries around the world also climbed.
Bessent believes the link between interest rates and oil prices is particularly pronounced at present. He said the correlation between interest rates and oil prices is at a very high level, and that once the Iran conflict ends, lower energy prices will help ease overall inflationary pressure and further drive market interest rates lower. He said: “The Iran conflict will eventually end, and when it does, the short-term surge in interest rates and overall inflation will both come down.” This view suggests that, in Bessent’s opinion, the recent sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields does not fully represent a structural deterioration in the long-term U.S. inflation outlook; a substantial portion of the pressure comes from the energy price shock triggered by the Iran conflict. If global oil supplies loosen again after the war ends, a rapid decline in oil prices could ease both inflation and pressure on bond markets.
Meanwhile, Bessent also downplayed the potential impact of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund possibly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. As one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is considering reducing its allocation to U.S. Treasuries. According to relevant analysis, if the plan is implemented, its Treasury holdings could decline by approximately $75 billion. At a time when the U.S. government’s financing needs are enormous and investors are becoming increasingly sensitive to demand for longer-term U.S. Treasuries, the news temporarily heightened market concerns about demand for U.S. government debt. Bessent, however, believes that Norway is not simply withdrawing from U.S. assets, but is more likely reallocating funds within U.S. assets to obtain higher returns.
He said that if Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to increase its investments in bonds related to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, he “strongly supports” it. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are U.S. government-chartered housing finance institutions, while Ginnie Mae is a U.S. federal housing finance institution; their related bonds can generally offer higher yields than U.S. Treasuries. In Bessent’s view, even if Norway’s fund reduces its Treasury holdings, that does not necessarily mean overseas funds are broadly withdrawing from U.S. financial assets. However, news of the fund’s potential reduction in its Treasury holdings still came at a relatively sensitive time.
A measure of U.S. federal debt recently surpassed a record $40 trillion, and the enormous fiscal financing needs mean that the U.S. government must continue attracting domestic and foreign investors to purchase Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury market is therefore currently facing multiple factors at once, including fiscal deficits, massive bond supply, rising energy prices, and inflation expectations.
Bessent’s assessment treats the trajectory of oil prices after the Iran conflict ends as an important variable in easing these pressures. If crude really falls sharply from above $90 currently to the $40-$50 range, it could not only quickly reduce energy inflation but also become an important catalyst for U.S. Treasury yields to resume their decline.$XBRUSD