$TSLA SPCX Back to $150: Analysts Call for $280, but 300 Million Shares Unlock on September 9

Oppenheimer raised its target from $250 to $280, with the reasoning quite straightforward: AI-related revenue has more upside than previously expected. Sounds great, right?
But immediately afterward, it will face a much more practical issue—on September 9, approximately 319 million employee lock-up shares will be unlocked.
The next day, September 10, another approximately 59 million shares from a separate tranche will become tradable. On one side, analysts are saying it could “double again”; on the other, several hundred million additional shares could potentially hit the market within days.
This article breaks down what is driving the rise, what is creating pressure, and how ordinary investors should view it.
First, let’s clarify how this rally happened
On September 3, SPCX’s trading volume expanded noticeably, reaching approximately 120 million shares, well above its usual activity.
It closed at $149.74, a clear jump from the $140-plus level the previous day. The market interpreted the move as several factors coming together: Analysts raised their price targets
Oppenheimer set a $280 target, based on the core logic that AI computing power and related revenue could be stronger than originally expected. After SpaceX went public, the market has been continually repricing it—whether it is simply an aerospace company or a platform-like company with AI potential. Tech sentiment improved across the broader market
U.S. technology stocks were generally strong that day, and SpaceX, as a closely watched name, was easily lifted along with them.
The fundamental narrative remains intact
Starlink is continuing its launches, and its constellation has already reached a significant scale; its integration with Tesla’s Cybercab—the company has said Starlink V5 will be directly integrated into the autonomous taxis, and Musk has also said passengers will be able to watch 4K livestreams in the vehicles—has left the market imagining further cross-business monetization.
Simply put: what is rising is expectations, not a sudden increase in earnings on any single day.

What exactly are analysts calling for with $280?
At roughly $280 versus the current level of around $150, that implies considerable theoretical upside.
But several points deserve attention: this is a price target, not a promise, and certainly not a guarantee.
After going public, SpaceX once reached a high near $225, then pulled back. Its move back above $150 is actually a recovery from relatively low levels. Much of the premium assigned by the market comes from the combined narrative of “AI + aerospace + satellite internet.” Once something goes wrong on the AI side—such as the recent outage at the Memphis computing center or a brief Grok disruption—sentiment can immediately become sensitive. Therefore, $280 is more like an optimistic scenario in which everything goes smoothly and AI revenue materializes, rather than a price that can be directly benchmarked against the current level.
The real elephant in the room: the September 9 unlock This is the most important calendar event to watch in the coming days.
According to publicly available information:
September 9: Approximately 319 million employee lock-up shares will be unlocked (the 90th-trading-day tranche)
September 10: Approximately 59 million shares from another tranche of restricted shares will become tradable
An unlock does not mean all the shares will be sold immediately. Many people will reduce their holdings in stages, while others will hold for the long term. But what the market fears most is the expectation that “supply will suddenly increase.”
In the options market, some investors have already been seen buying short-term protective puts near the current price. This is common—it does not mean everyone is bearish; rather, some are hedging against the unlock. Historically, around large unlocks, share-price volatility often increases:
Some sell in advance, some sell after the unlock, and some specifically wait for the selling to finish before buying the dip.
Only time will tell who is right.
For ordinary observers, the most important point is not guessing whether the stock will “crash,” but recognizing that the rise over the past few days occurred before the unlock.
The supply pressure has not truly arrived yet.
Taking a broader look: What is SpaceX actually selling now? After going public, the market’s understanding of SpaceX is no longer limited to “a company that launches rockets.”
It can broadly be broken down into several areas:
Launch services: Falcon 9 has practically become an assembly line, with an increasing number of reuse flights and a rapid launch cadence. Starlink: Satellite internet, with users and revenue growing, while it is also experimenting with integration into vehicles such as the Cybercab.
Starship: The biggest long-term variable. Progress has fluctuated, and key milestones—such as booster recovery and achieving orbit—are still advancing. The market is both hopeful and worried about delays.
AI / computing power: This is the area analysts emphasized when raising their price target, as well as the area with the greatest speculative upside and volatility.
In a single sentence: it is now being traded simultaneously as an aerospace stock, a satellite communications stock, and a growth stock with some AI exposure.
The richer the narrative, the greater the upside potential—and the greater the volatility.

How should the risks be balanced?
At this point, the risks must be made clear; otherwise, this would be nothing more than one-sided cheerleading.
Potentially negative interpretations: accusations of “pumping and dumping” around the unlock
When a major unlock follows a rally, this kind of criticism can easily appear in the comments.
The rational approach is to watch trading volume and the actual selling pressure after the unlock, rather than focusing only on one day’s price movement. What if the AI narrative takes longer to materialize?
Analysts’ high targets are largely based on AI revenue. If subsequent earnings reports or guidance fail to keep pace, the valuation will come under pressure first. Repeated delays in Starship’s progress
Any news that “a key test originally supposed to be completed this month has been postponed again” will be used to challenge optimistic expectations. The high valuation itself
Its market capitalization has already reached the trillion-dollar level. A high valuation means less room for error, and any negative development is more likely to be amplified.
The relatively positive side: The reliability and cadence of its launch business remain among the few in the industry capable of delivering consistently. Starlink’s commercialization path is much clearer than it was several years ago. Institutions raising their price targets shows that at least some professional capital is still willing to assign a growth premium. Both sides need to be considered to avoid believing everything when the stock rises and condemning everything when it falls.
How should ordinary investors digest this news?
If you are simply following technology and aerospace, you can treat the next few days as a lesson in the “real trading rhythm after an IPO”:
How narrative, unlocks, analyst price targets, and options hedging can all take effect simultaneously within a few days. If you hold related assets or are considering following the stock, remember these three points: One day’s gain or loss does not represent a trend. The unlock is a confirmed supply event, and sentiment will react in advance. An analyst price target is a reference, not a safety net.

SpaceX’s transition from private ownership to public trading was always bound to involve more price discovery.
Around $150, a $280 target, and a 300 million-share unlock—these three factors together put expectations and reality on the table at the same time.
What is truly worth watching next is not another even higher price target, but what price the market ultimately uses to vote on this company after the unlock takes effect.$SPCX