#非农就业报告即将揭晓

The U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is one of the most important macro events for global markets, and tonight’s release could create major volatility across Bitcoin, crypto, stocks, gold and the U.S. dollar.

Markets are expecting August payrolls to increase by around 56,000 jobs, compared with -23,000 previously, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with annual wage growth slowing to 3.0% from 3.2%.

Normally, weaker employment data is viewed as positive for risk assets because it reduces expectations of future Federal Reserve rate hikes. The traditional market logic is:

Weak jobs → Easier Fed policy → Bullish for stocks, gold and Bitcoin.

However, tonight may be different.

Many analysts believe the market has already priced in the possibility of weaker August employment data, as this month has historically produced soft payroll numbers. That means the most important figure may not be job growth itself, but rather wage growth.

If employment weakens while wages remain strong, inflation could stay elevated. This creates concerns about stagflation, where economic growth slows but inflation remains persistent. Such a scenario could pressure stocks and risk assets instead of supporting them.

Federal Reserve officials have also indicated that inflation remains a key focus, which means next week’s CPI report could become even more important than tonight’s jobs data.

Another factor investors should watch is energy prices. Rising oil prices or increased geopolitical tensions could push inflation higher and make the Fed’s job more difficult.

For Bitcoin, tonight’s report could trigger sharp price swings. Weak jobs combined with lower wage growth may support BTC and other risk assets, while weak jobs with sticky wages could create market uncertainty.

So tonight, don’t focus only on the headline payroll number.

Watch payrolls, unemployment, wages and the market’s reaction together.

The real signal may be hidden beneath the surface.

#非农就业报告即将揭晓 @Gate_Square #GateSquare