Reclaiming $80k Before Nonfarm Payrolls—Is BTC Betting on the Fed in Advance?

Nonfarm payrolls have yet to be released, but BTC has already reclaimed $80k: What is the market betting on?
The most interesting thing has happened: U.S. August nonfarm payrolls have yet to be released, but BTC has already climbed back above $80k.
This shows that the market is trading ahead of an expectation—the U.S. labor market is cooling, and the Fed will not raise rates in September.
Waller's recently expressed conditional dovish signals have undoubtedly given the market a shot in the arm. Market data shows that the probability of a September rate hike has fluctuated sharply recently and is now back near 50-50, while BTC has quickly rebounded above $80k.
So BTC's rise now has already priced in part of the expectation that nonfarm payrolls will not be too strong.
This also means tonight's data could produce a very interesting situation:
If nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations and wage growth continues to slow, the market may further strengthen its expectation that the Fed will hold rates steady in September.
In this case, if the dollar and Treasury yields continue to fall, BTC could gain a second round of upward momentum.
But if nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations and wages remain very strong, it will be an entirely different script.
The market will once again worry: If the U.S. economy is this strong, why would the Fed stop raising rates?
At that point, the dollar could strengthen and Treasury yields rebound, potentially putting short-term pressure on BTC.
So BTC above $80k is actually sitting at a very sensitive position right now.
From a technical perspective, $80k has once again become a key psychological threshold, while the $82k-$83k area faces significant resistance. Reuters' technical analysis also pointed out that around $82,793 coincides with the previous high and a technical retracement level, making it the next important resistance; if this level is broken, room for a further move toward $90k will open up.
Therefore, I will not directly declare that BTC is “taking off” just because it has reclaimed $80k.
I am more focused on whether BTC can remain above that level after tonight's nonfarm payrolls.
Weak data + cooling wages + $80k holds: bullish.
Strong data + resilient wages + $80k breaks: cautious.
This is the real trading logic tonight.
BTC has now handed control over the direction to macroeconomic data.
If nonfarm payrolls give the bulls a ladder, $83k could soon become the next battleground; if the data reignites rate-hike expectations, $80k could once again turn from support into resistance.
So tonight's biggest focus is not whether “BTC can rise.”
It is:
Whether the Fed's dovish expectations are a genuine trend or whether the market simply got temporarily overexcited in advance.
Once nonfarm payrolls are released, the answer will naturally be revealed.#BTC收复8万美元 $NVDA