#AugustNFPReportComing

‍- U.S. Jobs data is central for now.

There are a few weaker signals from the U.S. Labor market heading into tonight's August Nonfarm Payrolls data.

There was an increase in private ADP jobs of only 38,000 in August which was the lowest monthly reading since January. Market expectations call for the official NFP report to show an increase of 55,000 jobs.

Tonight's data thus will prove central in assessing the outlook for the Federal Reserve.

August ADP: +38K

Expected NFP: ~55K

The important focus is on the outcome of the September decision by the Fed regarding interest rates

The key question here is whether the official jobs report aligns with the weaker trends suggested by ADP.

A less robust official jobs report could lead traders to believe that there is limited room for the Fed to lift interest rates whereas a robust jobs report could cement the case for tighter policy conditions to be maintained in the foreseeable future.

We may see a rapid shift across a host of asset markets including stocks, bonds, the greenback and gold as well as Bitcoin but it should not be the sole factor determining the decision of the Fed; inflation and other labor market indicators may also prove crucial.

After the surprise negative payroll figure seen in July, this may yet prove another crucial indicator heading into the September decision.

What's your call on the August NFP: will it beat 55K, miss the estimate or will the data fall largely in line with expectations?

‍#FederalReserve #Markets