#非农就业报告即将揭晓 At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report will be officially released. This is one of the most important macroeconomic data releases ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

First, let's look at market expectations:
August nonfarm payrolls: approximately 56k expected (previous: -23k)
August unemployment rate: 4.1% expected (previous: 4.1%) July's nonfarm payrolls report was a "disaster"—employment unexpectedly fell by 23k.
At the same time, the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103k, showing that the labor market's actual performance was far weaker than initially reported. In other words, the U.S. labor market is clearly cooling, and there is little dispute about that anymore. The ADP ("private payrolls") data further confirmed this trend—private-sector employment increased by only 38k in August, below the expected 48k and the slowest growth since January.

So the question is: How important is this nonfarm payrolls report?
The Federal Reserve is currently facing a "dilemma"—on the one hand, Fed Chair Wosh sent a clear hawkish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting, stressing that policymakers would still need to take further action if inflation does not return to 2% quickly enough. The interest-rate market currently still puts the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September at around 60%. On the other hand, the U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices, while U.S. long-term Treasury yields had previously surged. If the labor market is truly cooling rapidly, the Fed will have less justification for continuing to raise rates.

Three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (more than 100k new jobs), while the unemployment rate remains at 4.1% or even declines. This would mean July's negative growth was merely a short-term fluctuation and that employment remains resilient. Combined with elevated inflation, the probability of a September rate hike would rise sharply. For U.S. stocks, rising Treasury yields would pressure high-valuation technology stocks, and the Nasdaq could be more sensitive than the Dow.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls roughly meet expectations (50,000-60k new jobs), with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. This would indicate that the labor market is still expanding, but at a very modest pace. Such a result may not be enough on its own to determine the policy direction for September, and the Fed would also need to assess the August PPI and CPI data released afterward. The market would most likely remain range-bound.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm payrolls again approach zero growth or even turn negative, while the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% or higher. This would mean the labor market may be cooling faster than the Fed expects. Even if inflation remains elevated, the threshold for the Fed to continue raising rates would rise significantly.

BofA's view is worth considering: "The nonfarm payrolls report is unlikely to be the decisive factor in determining whether the Fed hikes rates in September. A clearly weak nonfarm payrolls report could reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, but CPI remains the key indicator in determining whether the Fed raises rates.
"Nonfarm payrolls are important, but don't treat them as the "only answer."
What will truly determine whether the Fed hikes rates in September is the August CPI data.