On September 1, CME FedWatch showed the odds of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September—66%.

On September 4, the same tool showed—50.2%.
In three days, it dropped by 16 percentage points.
What happened?
Fed Governor Waller turned more dovish.
Waller’s exact words: “If the inflation data released over the next two weeks continues to show a cooling trend, I am inclined to support holding rates unchanged in September.”
He even quoted a line from John Lennon—“Give inflation a chance to slow down.”
Waller added another sharp one: “Even if the Fed hikes by 25 basis points at a single meeting now, it cannot bring the CPI to 2%.”
Just a week earlier, Fed Chair Wash was still sounding hawkish at Jackson Hole—“If the inflation trend doesn’t improve, we still have work to do.”
In one week, it went from “it must hike” to “give inflation a chance.”
The market cast its vote in cold, hard cash.
The moment Waller spoke, U.S. Treasury yields fell immediately.
The U.S. dollar weakened.
Then what?
Gold surged toward a three-month high.
Bitcoin directly broke through $82,000.
The transmission chain is only four steps:
Waller turns dovish → rate-hike expectations cool → both U.S. dollar and Treasury yields take a double hit → risk-free assets collectively surge upward.
But there’s another side to the story—equally精彩.
Jiang Zhuo’er sold all his BTC holdings at $82,050, then pivoted to shorting. His rationale was: BTC is nearing the top of the range, ETF fund flows showed outflows, and there’s resistance above in the $83,000–$84,000 area.
On September 2, ETFs reversed course with net inflows of $101 million; just BlackRock’s IBIT took in $115 million.
In the early hours of September 4, BTC climbed above $82,000.
Yi Lihua posted on X: “The bull market trend has already begun, and the overhead resistance level is still around $86,000.”
With BTC above 82,000, it looks like a candlestick breakout.
In essence, the market is voting in cold, hard cash—betting that the Fed won’t dare to hike again.
But don’t get too excited yet.
Waller left a back door open: “If the August inflation data shows improvement is only temporary, I will shift to support additional rate hikes.”
Before the Fed meeting on September 15–16, there’s also August CPI data that will be released.
That data is the real judgment day.
Macroeconomic liquidity is the “fuel” for this rebound, and ETFs are the “igniter.”
But whether the fuel can keep flowing doesn’t depend on how much BTC rises—it depends on how much next week’s CPI falls.
Jiang Zhuo’er is waiting to buy back at 70,000
Yi Lihua is waiting for a breakout at 86,000
What about you?
$BTC