Oil prices surge, so be careful with stocks and rate-cut expectations

Crude oil surged 5.7%; what the market fears most at the next stop is not the gas station, but “inflation + high interest rates”
When many people see crude oil soaring, their first reaction is that energy stocks are about to take off.
That’s right, but if oil prices continue rising, what financial markets really need to watch out for is inflation picking up again.
After tensions between the US and Iran escalated, crude oil prices quickly climbed, with Brent briefly reaching around $95 and WTI moving above $91. Meanwhile, the dollar and US Treasury yields were driven by inflation concerns, and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy also became noticeably more cautious.
This is what is known as an “energy shock.”
Rising oil prices first increase transportation, manufacturing, and consumer costs; as companies’ costs rise, their profit margins may be squeezed; after consumers increase their spending, inflationary pressure may reemerge.
The most awkward part is:
The market may have been expecting rate cuts, only for crude oil to suddenly “cause trouble.”
If energy prices remain high, the Federal Reserve will need to focus more on inflation risks rather than simply considering economic stimulus.
So, what really needs to be observed in this round of oil-price increases is the duration.
A one-day rise may be just sentiment.
A one-month rise could become a macroeconomic variable.
From an asset-allocation perspective, energy, gold, and the dollar may attract some safe-haven attention, while high-valuation and interest-rate-sensitive assets require greater caution.
Of course, if tensions between the US and Iran ease quickly, the risk premium in oil prices could also rapidly fade.
So the most important thing now is not to chase oil prices and shout, “The bull market is here.”
It is to focus on one core question:
Is this conflict a sprint, or is it preparing to run a marathon?#美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7%