#布伦特原油上涨5.7% The surge in Brent crude oil prices in this round, triggered by the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict and expectations of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, is typically driven by a “geopolitical risk premium.” The rally has been rapid in the short term, but its sustainability is questionable. It will most likely take the form of a “pulse-like” spike followed by “high-level volatility,” making a sustained one-way surge unlikely. The specific outlook and core logic are as follows:

1. Upside potential: Limited short-term upside; beware of a pullback as “expectations are realized”
· Upside ceiling: In the short term, if the conflict continues to escalate or the Strait of Hormuz is actually blockaded, oil prices may challenge the $100-per-barrel level, but the probability of such an extreme scenario is relatively low.
· Pullback risk: Current oil prices already include a relatively high risk premium, estimated at $8–12, while an actual supply disruption has yet to occur. Once geopolitical tensions ease, the conflict cools, or market sentiment fades, oil prices will quickly give back the premium and fall back to the $85–88 range.
2. Downside support: High-level volatility amid a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment
· Supportive factors: In the short term, low inventories, with global crude oil inventories at low levels, stronger spot prices, and domestic refinery restocking demand will provide some downside support for oil prices. Combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, oil prices will most likely remain volatile at elevated levels.
· Suppressive factors: High oil prices will curb end-user consumption, while demand is unlikely to support a sustained surge against the backdrop of a weak recovery in global manufacturing. At the same time, rising oil prices will push up inflation expectations, potentially triggering renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and creating macroeconomic pressure on oil prices.
3. Core variable: Developments in the geopolitical situation
· Oil price movements will depend heavily on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the actual navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ capacity adjustments.

Due to the sudden and unpredictable nature of geopolitics, oil price volatility will increase significantly in the short term. In terms of operations, beware of the risks of chasing prices higher and focus primarily on swing trading. $XBRUSD ‌