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Bitcoin Enters “Rektember”: September’s Historical Performance Is Weak, While Rate Hike Risks May Weigh on August’s Gains

MarsBitNews
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Mars Finance news, September 1: Bitcoin got off to a weak start in September, falling below $78k. Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month on average, with an average decline of around 3% and monthly gains recorded only five times, earning it the market nickname “Rektember.” However, Bitcoin rose in each of the past three Septembers, and gained around 25% in August, its strongest monthly performance since November 2024, so it may face short-term volatility, consolidation, or even a pullback. The macro environment is also creating pressure. After Fed Chair Wosh sent hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole annual symposium, global bond markets faced a sell-off, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes briefly rising to 4.784%. The market currently estimates a roughly 66% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 and is betting that rates may rise further this year. High interest rates typically tighten financial conditions, support the dollar, and weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Meanwhile, continued tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, with WTI crude rising to around $88 per barrel, while gold fell more than 2% on Tuesday. Traditional markets are also facing seasonal pressure: since 1975, September has been the only month in which the S&P 500 has posted a negative average performance.
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StopBlade
· 2 hours ago
The Fed’s hawkish signal caught the market off guard, with a 66% probability of a rate hike. Wait for the September FOMC decision before gauging the direction.
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AntiFUD_Shield
· 3 hours ago
The September curse is back again—can it be broken this time?
View OriginalReply0
LiquidationHunter
· 4 hours ago
The historical average decline is actually only 3%, which isn't too bad. The key is that the market rose too much this August, so a pullback is normal.
View OriginalReply0
LiquiditySurfer
· 4 hours ago
Gold is down 2%—where is the money flowing? U.S. Treasuries?
View OriginalReply0
AutoGunner
· 4 hours ago
High interest rates + geopolitical conflicts are hitting risk assets from both sides. Better to stay defensive for now.
View OriginalReply0

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