#WTI原油 Geopolitical disruptions are driving up crude oil prices, with $80–90 remaining the price range for all sides to contend over

Geopolitical factors continue to dominate the current international crude oil market. Prices often rise when US-Iran tensions intensify and fall when US-Iran relations ease. Recently, the United States attacked two rocket launch facilities on Iran’s Larak Island. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at US bases in the Middle East. The situation of mutual attacks could very likely lead to the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, making the current situation, in which dozens of ships pass through daily, unsustainable.
For international crude oil prices, unstable supply is the biggest positive factor. Since August 26, US crude oil WTI prices have continued to rise, reaching a high of $85.57 yesterday. Today’s price is expected to hit a new weekly high, with positive news having a significant impact on the market. We believe that a WTI price near $85 is moderately high and consistent with the current backdrop of geopolitical disruptions. $80–90 may become a long-term price range for all sides to contend over. Whether the range is broken upward or downward would require new and substantive changes in the geopolitical situation, and the probability of such changes is not high. On the one hand, the United States faces high debt and midterm elections; on the other hand, Iran also needs to export its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If a high-intensity conflict breaks out between the two sides again, it could lead to an even more serious lose-lose situation.
Recently, it was reported that the United States had acquired equity stakes in 17 strategic oil fields in Venezuela. This means that, as a net oil exporter, the United States will gain greater potential oil production. US President Trump is committed to reversing the country’s massive trade deficit. Oil products account for the largest share of US exports, and increasing potential oil production can prepare for an increase in potential oil exports in the future, consistent with his longstanding strategy. However, as shown in the chart above, the curve for US strategic petroleum reserves has fallen rapidly, with the latest figure at 289.73M barrels, far below the peak level of 726 million barrels. US oil supply is also struggling to keep up, demonstrating the significant impact of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the international energy landscape.
In the long term, we believe the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not continue and will end in some unexpected way. Although countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq can export oil via pipelines and land transport, the total volume and cost still cannot compare with maritime transport. High oil prices correspond to high inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. This would be highly unfavorable for the United States, whose debt has already exceeded $40 trillion. International oil prices are currently trading in the $80–90 range. In the long term, we believe the probability of breaking below $80 is higher than that of breaking above $90.$XTIUSD ‌