#XAU 2026.9.1 Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy

Fundamentally, tensions between the US and Iran remain high, with both sides maintaining a hard-line stance while preparing for a prolonged war. Once the war becomes normalized, its subsequent impact on the market will gradually weaken, so it is sufficient to monitor new developments from both sides in the near term.
The key focus for this week's gold market is Friday's nonfarm payrolls data. Before the data is released over the next two days, the market will generally maintain a weak, range-bound pattern; after the nonfarm payrolls data is released, the market may use it as an opportunity to reverse.
Looking at gold's trend, gold fell on Monday to test around 4396, precisely reaching the first target of 4400 for the decline in this cycle. Everyone can also clearly see that 4400 provides a certain level of support. After touching this level, the price rebounded directly and did not retest it again throughout the day. The market has now rebounded to around 4460.
One point needs to be emphasized here: gold's bearish trend in this cycle has not completely ended, so there is no need to rush in and buy the dip. Overall, after gold fell continuously from the cycle high of 4700, it retested 4400 yesterday and rebounded, with the daily chart closing with a small bullish candlestick. The price is currently holding above the middle Bollinger Band. This small bullish candlestick does not indicate a reversal. We still need to observe for two days. If the second retest holds above 4400, we can then consider whether a double-bottom structure may form. If a large bearish candlestick engulfing the bullish candlestick appears subsequently, gold will see another round of declines. Therefore, the current approach is very clear. From a short-term trading perspective, gold still has room to continue falling, and 4400 cannot yet be considered the bottom of this cycle. In terms of trading, continue to focus on selling at highs in line with the trend. On the upside, we can still rely on the resistance zone around 4480 to look for a pullback, while focusing on the structural pattern around 4400. If this level holds, the next two days will most likely involve repeated range-bound movement to build a bottom, during which many entry opportunities will also emerge. Ideally, the market will break below 4400 and reach the 4300/4350 range, coinciding with the data opportunity in the latter half of the week. At that point, we can combine the nonfarm payrolls data to make a real-time bottom-fishing plan. We will monitor both possibilities as they develop and adjust our trading approach in real time according to the pattern.$XAUUSD ‌