#美联储加息预期升温 $2.3 trillion evaporated overnight! Wosh's “hawkish talons” have fallen—is BTC headed to its next stop? Jackson Hole becomes a watershed for the crypto market, with the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 35% to 61%, and Bitcoin falling below $78k

I. First, what happened
On the evening of August 28 Beijing time, Fed Chair Wosh delivered his first major speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. Four hours later, $2.3 trillion evaporated from global markets. Bitcoin plunged directly from above $81,000 to $76,877, down nearly 5% in 24 hours. More than $300 million in leveraged positions across the market evaporated overnight, including over $107 million in BTC long liquidations alone. The probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 57.4%, briefly touching 61% intraday. This time, every word from Wosh cut like a knife.
II. What exactly did Wosh say? Three points explained
First: “We still have work to do.”
The exact quote was: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the 2% target quickly enough. Otherwise, we still have work to do.” In the Fed’s official language, “we still have work to do” ≈ “I may raise rates at any time.”
Second: “Financial conditions are not restrictive.”
The exact quote: “I would have difficulty describing broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
In plain English: interest rates are still not high enough.
The market had been pricing in that “rates are already high enough,” only for Wosh to say they are “not enough.”
Third: “The 2% target is non-negotiable.”
He made clear that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is a “firm, fixed target.” PCE inflation was 3.7% year over year over 12 months and 4.1% annualized over six months, still far from the target.
III. Why did the market react so strongly?
① This was Wosh’s most forceful hawkish statement in his first 100 days in office. Previously, he had followed a “the less said, the better” approach—cutting forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and refusing to provide a rate path. The market had grown used to his ambiguity, but this time he was no longer ambiguous.
② He closed off every escape route. Wosh explicitly refused to provide forward guidance or tell the market “under what circumstances rates would be raised and under what circumstances they would not.” What the market fears most is not a rate hike, but uncertainty.
③ He directly rejected the previous “rate-cut narrative”
For the past few months, the market had been trading on the logic of “falling inflation → Fed rate cuts → liquidity returns → risk assets rise.” Wosh dismantled that logic directly: inflation is not falling fast enough, so don’t get your hopes up. IV. What does this mean for BTC?
Short term: Hawkish pressure remains
After Wosh’s speech, BTC fell from $81,000 to around $77,000 and is currently moving sideways between $77,500 and $78,000. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike as high as 57.4%, and that figure alone is bearish. Search results show that Glassnode data indicates nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000. This is the most concentrated cost-basis zone, meaning many holders are struggling around the breakeven line, creating natural selling pressure.
Medium term: Asia’s “long-term narrative” remains intact
Despite short-term pressure, the structural signals released at the Hong Kong summit remain valid. Metaplanet’s CEO stated clearly: “The bottom is already in, and I expect the rest of this year to be much brighter.”
He believes the first “Asian cycle” has already begun—Japan holds approximately $14 trillion in household financial assets, half of which sits in bank deposits earning virtually no interest. New legislation has placed Bitcoin under the same regulatory framework as stocks and bonds, while the capital gains tax will fall from a maximum of 55% to 20%.
BIT analyst Markus Thielen, based on nearly fourteen years of historical data, believes Bitcoin is at the intersection of three trends: debt continuing to expand, the end of dollar strength, and Bitcoin completing an approximately 12-month correction. The next two- to three-year upcycle is beginning, with fair value estimated at around $100k based on the current size of US Treasury debt.
V. Trading approach
Do not rush to buy the dip below $78,000: a 57% probability of a rate hike is no joke; wait for the market to fully digest it
Watch the inflation data ahead of the September FOMC meeting: August CPI will be key to the final direction
Keep long-term positions unchanged: the Asian cycle + the $100k fair-value narrative are long-term theses
Do not make a heavily leveraged directional bet at this level in the short term: the macro backdrop is hawkish and the technical picture is weak

After Wosh’s hawkish talons fell, the market is repricing “a future without rate cuts.” Jackson Hole is a watershed—before it, the market was trading “rate-cut expectations”; afterward, it will trade “the possibility of rate hikes.” But as Metaplanet’s CEO said: “The current sellers are selling because they have to, while the new buyers entering the market will not leave.” The long-term logic remains intact; only the short-term pace needs to be adjusted. $BTC ‌