#美联储加息预期升温 Goldman Sachs pours cold water: Can Waller’s “most hawkish” speech alter the September hold, and will rate-hike expectations be unwound?

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius said that although Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole last Friday (August 28) was hawkish in tone, Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged in September. Hatzius noted that Waller’s speech opened the door to a September rate hike, but only if the August CPI and PPI data surprise to the upside. Goldman Sachs expects core CPI and core PCE to rise by around 0.2% month over month, broadly in line with recent trend inflation and insufficient to support a rate hike.

Goldman Sachs: Waller’s “most hawkish” speech, but the threshold for a rate hike has not yet been reached

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a client report that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Waller’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium was his “most hawkish” statement since taking office as chair. Waller clearly stressed that the Fed’s top priority at present is to ensure that underlying inflation returns to the 2% target at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace; otherwise, “there is still work to do.” He acknowledged that this summer’s PCE and CPI readings had been better than expected, but also stressed that the data had not yet shown a meaningful improvement in the underlying inflation trend, with price increases for some goods and services still significantly above pre-pandemic levels.
Hatzius believes this framework opened the door to a September rate hike, but the trigger condition is relatively strict: only an upside surprise in the upcoming August CPI and PPI data could support a policy response.
Goldman Sachs itself forecasts that core CPI and core PCE will rise by around 0.2% month over month, broadly in line with recent trend inflation, so the threshold for a near-term rate hike has not truly been reached.
The market’s rate-hike probability briefly jumped after the speech, but Goldman Sachs cautioned investors that Waller provided no clear forward guidance and that policy remains highly dependent on validation from subsequent data.

Goldman Sachs expects moderate August inflation, with a September hold still the baseline.

Based on its cautious outlook for August inflation, Goldman Sachs continues to treat an unchanged-rate decision at the September FOMC meeting as its baseline scenario.
The bank expects both core CPI and core PCE to rise by around 0.2% month over month in August, a pace consistent with recent inflation trends and insufficient to meet the rate-hike trigger implied by Waller’s remark that underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved.
Hatzius noted that if the actual data match this moderate expectation, the market’s rapid repricing toward a rate hike following Waller’s hawkish remarks could prove premature. The August CPI and PPI reports will be more important inputs for the September decision than the speech itself.
Goldman Sachs stressed that although Waller sent a tough signal and reiterated that the 2% target remains unwavering, he did not commit to a specific policy path. The final action will still be determined by a comprehensive assessment of financial conditions and the labor market. If inflation remains moderate, the Federal Reserve is more likely to continue waiting rather than rush to raise rates, thereby avoiding unnecessary economic damage from premature tightening.

U.S. Dollar Index: A tug-of-war between policy expectations and data reality
Goldman Sachs’s expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September contrasts subtly with the market’s rapid increase in rate-hike expectations after Waller’s hawkish speech.
On the one hand, the market pushed the probability of a September rate hike to around 60% after Waller’s speech, providing short-term support for the dollar, while the U.S. Dollar Index held steady near 99.00 last Friday. On the other hand, if Goldman Sachs is correct—that the August CPI and PPI data will be moderate, with core CPI and core PCE rising by around 0.2% month over month—the rate-hike probability could retreat, and the U.S. Dollar Index could fall toward 98.50.
Goldman Sachs’s analysis suggests that Waller’s hawkish wording alone is insufficient to drive the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September; the actual decision will depend heavily on inflation data over the next two weeks. This means that the U.S. Dollar Index could remain range-bound ahead of the September meeting, with an upside cap and downside floor: its rise limited by the assessment from Goldman Sachs and other institutions of the rate-hike threshold, and its decline constrained by the policy-expectation support provided by Waller’s hawkish speech.
In addition, if August inflation data are moderate, U.S. Treasury yields could give back some of their gains, weakening the dollar’s yield advantage; if the data surprise to the upside, they would validate Waller’s hawkish framework and increase the probability of a rate hike, potentially driving the U.S. Dollar Index back toward the 99.50–99.80 range.
The August CPI and PPI data will be the key short-term catalysts for the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index, rather than Waller’s speech itself. Before the data are released, the U.S. Dollar Index is expected to consolidate around 99.50.