#BTC重返81000美元 BTC Rejected at Highs and Pulls Back: $79,300 Established as the Short-Term Top, Trading Strategy Under a Stepwise Downtrend Structure

After Bitcoin underwent a strong rebound from $64,000 to $81,000 in late August, it encountered clear resistance around $79,300. The current price is fluctuating around $78,600, displaying a typical stepwise downtrend structure in which both highs and lows are moving lower. This article combines the latest ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and key technical levels to provide an in-depth analysis of the current market battle between bulls and bears and propose actionable trading strategies.
Bitcoin's performance during the final week of August can be described as one of the most textbook market developments of the second half of 2026. At the beginning of the month, the price was still hovering near the relative low of $62,763, but it subsequently launched a sharp rebound driven by continued net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. As of August 25, BTC had reached an intraday high of $81,235, with market sentiment rising into the extreme greed zone—the Fear and Greed Index briefly surged to 83. However, just as the bulls appeared poised to break through the key psychological level of $82,000 in one final push, the rally abruptly stalled near $79,300, followed by a typical spike-and-reversal pattern.
Looking at the specific price action, August 28 became an important turning point in this rebound. Bitcoin reached a high of $81,346 that day but closed sharply lower at $77,830, with an intraday range of more than $4,400, forming a bearish candle with a long upper wick. This candlestick pattern itself conveyed a strong bearish signal: the market encountered determined profit-taking pressure at higher levels.
On August 29, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made hawkish remarks during the Jackson Hole symposium, explicitly expressing caution about the sustainability of the decline in inflation. This statement directly triggered a broad sell-off in risk assets, with Bitcoin quickly falling from around $79,000 to $77,800, down more than 4% on the day. Notably, ETF fund flows played an extremely important leading-indicator role during this market move.
According to tracking data from Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $3.05 billion from August 3 to August 25, with daily net inflows reaching as high as $606.3 million on August 20, the second-highest level of the year. It was precisely this sustained influx of funds that provided solid buying support for BTC's rebound from $64,000 to $81,000.
However, ETFs saw net outflows of $201.8 million on August 28, ending the previous streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT recorded net outflows of $33.4 million, while ARK 21Shares' ARKB saw even larger net outflows of $114.9 million. The sudden shift in ETF fund flows resonated strongly with the price action, and this was by no means coincidental—temporary institutional withdrawals often signal an important turning point in the short-term trend.
Returning to technical analysis, the stepwise downtrend structure currently visible on the chart warrants close attention. From the August 25 high of $81,235, to the August 27 lower high of $80,807, and then to the August 28 rebound high of $79,334, it is clear that rebound highs are declining step by step. At the same time, pullback lows fell from $77,640 on August 26 to $76,909 on August 28. Although the price rebounded toward $78,600 on August 30, the strength of the rebound had clearly weakened and failed to reach above $79,000. This synchronized pattern of lower highs and lower lows is a classic technical sign that bears are gradually taking control of the market.
From a volume-price perspective, $78,200, which has been retested multiple times since the August 28 rally began, is gradually losing its support effectiveness. Each rebound after touching this level has been lower, while trading volume has also contracted, indicating that bulls' willingness to provide support in this area is weakening. Once $78,200 is decisively broken, downside room will open directly toward the $77,800-$77,500 range. From a broader perspective, around $77,500 is precisely the upper boundary of the gap formed when ETF inflows surged on August 20. If this level fails, it would mean that the rebound driven by institutional funds may be officially coming to a complete end.
At the macro level, the market is facing a battle among several key variables. First is the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on September 16. The market currently broadly expects the Fed to begin a rate-cutting cycle, but considerable uncertainty remains over the scale and pace of the cuts. The hawkish signals released at the Jackson Hole symposium have already cooled market expectations for "aggressive rate cuts." If the September FOMC meeting produces a hawkish outcome, or if the dot plot shows a rate-cut path that falls short of expectations, risk assets could face another wave of selling pressure. The second factor is the Trump administration's progress in advancing the CLARITY Act. In late August, Trump convened cryptocurrency industry executives and regulators at the White House and pushed for the passage of this comprehensive crypto market structure bill in Congress. If the bill makes substantive progress in September, it will provide important policy support for the market; conversely, if the legislative process stalls again, it could become the final straw that breaks the bulls.
On-chain data and the derivatives market are also releasing several signals worth watching. Perpetual contract funding rates briefly surged to high levels around August 25, indicating that leveraged bulls had built large positions above $80,000. These highly leveraged positions were subsequently liquidated in a concentrated wave during the pullback, further intensifying the downward momentum. At the same time, changes in long-term holder (LTH) positions show that some coins accumulated in the $60,000-$65,000 range have begun to move into circulation in the $78,000-$80,000 range. This means that the market's cost basis is moving higher, but it also means that overhead trapped positions and break-even selling pressure are accumulating.
Taking the above analysis together, both Bitcoin's technical and fundamental conditions point to one conclusion: the short-term top was established near $79,300, and bears retain a relative advantage until the market can effectively reclaim and hold above $79,000. For traders, the core strategy should be to "sell rallies." The key resistance zone above is $78,800-$79,000, which is both an area where multiple previous rebounds were rejected and the core defensive position for bears. If the price rebounds into this zone and shows signs of stalling, traders may consider establishing short-term short positions, with a stop-loss set above $79,500. The first downside target to watch is the effectiveness of support at $78,200. If this level is decisively broken during the day, accompanied by increased trading volume, it would confirm that downside room has opened, with the next target at $77,800-$77,500. It must be emphasized that $77,500 is an extremely important dividing line between bulls and bears in this rebound structure—if this level fails, it would not only signal the complete destruction of the technical pattern but could also trigger a chain of redemptions by ETF holders, thereby amplifying the decline. At that point, deeper support would move down to the $75,000-$76,000 range, corresponding to the upper boundary of the concentrated trading zone from mid-August. Of course, any trading strategy must take risk management and position sizing into account. In the current high-volatility environment, it is recommended to limit the risk on any single trade to within 2% of total capital and to strictly follow stop-loss discipline. At the same time, traders should closely monitor ETF fund-flow data in early September and statements from Federal Reserve officials, as these macro variables could alter the market's pace in the short term. If the net-outflow trend in ETFs reverses and the price breaks above $79,500 on increased volume and holds there, the bearish strategy should be adjusted promptly and the market's bull-bear structure reassessed.
Overall, Bitcoin's market in late August is at a critical decision window. The temporary withdrawal of institutional funds, the technical top structure, and uncertainty surrounding macro policy have together created three layers of pressure on the current market. For rational market participants, remaining cautious, controlling position sizes, and strictly following discipline before the trend becomes clear may be the most prudent way to survive in this market full of uncertainty. $BTC