#加密市场观察 A look at crude oil, gold, A-shares, U.S. stocks, and whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates

From March to July, AI industry expansion and U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict pushed up inflation expectations; in early August, a surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields brought market pressure; in late August, various risks eased at the margin;
This chain of event transmission directly determines the future trends of crude oil, gold, A-shares, and U.S. stocks, as well as the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision. This article provides a complete review and analysis along this central thread.
I. March–July: AI expansion combined with geopolitical disruptions, creating a cycle of high growth, high oil prices, and high inflation
Since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, the market has gradually formed a self-reinforcing loop.
First, large-scale capital expenditure across the AI industry has raised expectations for long-term economic growth, pushed up returns on real-economy investment, and driven the overall interest-rate center higher. Strong economic resilience itself also supports demand for commodities.
Second, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed up crude oil prices. Rising oil prices increased production and logistics costs across society, squeezed the profits of traditional industries, and drove more capital toward high-growth sectors such as AI; continued AI capacity expansion further reinforced growth and interest-rate expectations, in turn supporting oil prices.
This created a cycle: rising oil prices → pressure on traditional industries, with capital flowing into the AI sector → expanding AI capital expenditure → rising growth, interest-rate, and inflation expectations → further support for oil prices.

Under this logic, major assets showed clear divergence. Gold was relatively weak: the main theme was economic resilience and rising real interest rates, while its safe-haven attribute did not become the core pricing factor, leaving gold under continued pressure;
Nonferrous industrial commodities fluctuated: interest rates created pressure, but AI-related demand provided an offset, keeping them volatile at elevated levels;
Crude oil was relatively strong: resilient demand combined with a geopolitical supply-risk premium provided two bullish factors
U.S. stocks showed structural divergence: AI technology stocks continued to strengthen, while traditional sectors performed weakly under the drag of high oil prices and high interest rates;
A-shares were broadly weak: there were few high-growth sectors capable of absorbing incremental capital, while the overseas high-interest-rate environment continued to exert external pressure.

II. August turning point: Inflation expectations heated up, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields briefly approached a state of being out of control
Entering August, the previous balance was broken. Inflation expectations rose rapidly and long-term U.S. Treasury yields climbed, bringing significant pressure to global markets.
Factors pushing up inflation expectations included the continued Federal Reserve balance-sheet reduction; the persistence of oil’s geopolitical premium; increased resource consumption from AI computing-power investment; U.S. tariffs causing imported inflation; insufficient constraints on inflation expectations from earlier policy statements; and rising Japanese fiscal pressure causing volatility in Japanese government bonds, prompting overseas institutions to sell U.S. Treasuries temporarily.
Three unexpected variables amplified market tension: first, the Federal Reserve did not actively guide inflation expectations for a period of time; second, Japan sold U.S. Treasuries under debt pressure, transmitting upward interest-rate pressure outward; third, the market had initially estimated that the U.S.-Iran conflict would cool rapidly, but the actual stalemate lasted longer than expected, keeping the energy risk premium elevated.
After long-term interest rates rose to a certain range, they began to pressure U.S. fiscal conditions, bank balance sheets, and the real economy, following logic similar to the earlier Silicon Valley Bank episode: once interest rates broke through the threshold the system could bear, the market began to correct itself.
III. Easing at the margin: Multiple pressures showed signs of relief
Starting in late August, the situation began to turn, with several major risk variables improving at the margin.
1. The Federal Reserve adjusted its messaging, signaling efforts to curb inflation and repairing expectations management;
2. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz eased, passage through the waterway gradually resumed, and crude oil’s geopolitical premium began to fade;
3. The market began pricing in subsequent rate hikes by Japan to stabilize the exchange rate, reducing pressure from its forced selling of U.S. Treasuries.
The current landscape has changed: although long-term interest rates remain high, the core driver is no longer uncontrolled inflation panic, but rather “strong economic resilience + repaired policy expectations.”
IV. Core question: Will the Federal Reserve raise rates again? This is the question the market is most concerned about at present.
One key judgment is that this round of inflation is structural inflation, rather than a comprehensive economic overheating. The two major forces driving inflation both have conditions for a natural decline going forward.
First, crude oil’s geopolitical premium will fall. The United States has strong incentives to restore shipping through the strait and push oil prices lower. On the one hand, this would ease global fiscal pressure and reduce countries’ motivation to sell U.S. Treasuries; on the other hand, it would reduce imported inflation caused by domestic refined-oil prices, leaving room for future policy operations. A decline in the central tendency of oil prices is the high-probability direction.
Second, the expansion pulse of AI capital expenditure will most likely slow at the margin. The market is overly optimistic about demand for computing power. After large volumes of AI content are produced, downstream returns will be diluted by the limits of total human attention and the ceiling on willingness to pay, prompting a number of small and medium-sized companies to cut back investment; at the same time, improved algorithmic efficiency will reduce computing-power consumption per unit of output; and AI deployment in the real economy is progressing more slowly than expected, making it difficult to drive capital expenditure indefinitely. This transmission process involves a lag, but its trend is clear. As the two structural drivers of inflation cool, inflation expectations will decline on their own. Based on this judgment, the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike is very low.

V. U.S. economic outlook: No recession risk, with baton-passing effects across industries
Even if AI investment growth slows, the U.S. economy will not weaken rapidly. Its resilience comes from three aspects: first, household income, employment, and asset prices are supporting consumption; high oil prices and high interest rates will only cause a moderate slowdown, not a systemic downturn; second, the technology industry has baton-passing effects, with aerospace, robotics, autonomous driving, and other fields able to sustain investment after AI investment cools; third, by global comparison, the United States still has clear advantages in capital and financial pricing.
Over the medium to long term, falling computing-power costs will instead benefit the penetration of AI technology into more industries and improve productivity.
VI. Outlook for crude oil, gold, U.S. stocks, and A-shares
1. Crude oil: As shipping through the waterway resumes and the geopolitical premium fades, combined with supply-side adjustments, the central tendency of oil prices will trend downward.
2. Gold: With inflation expectations falling, the U.S. economy remaining resilient, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields staying high, gold lacks a foundation for sustained strength and will be generally weak.
3. U.S. stocks: With rate-hike expectations fading, no recession risk in the economy, and baton-passing between new and established technology sectors, the indices will have overall support, with high-level consolidation and structural trends likely to dominate.
4. A-shares: Externally, U.S. Treasury yields remain high and the dollar is relatively strong, keeping the liquidity environment tight; internally, long-term structural problems including mortgage pressure, a real-estate downturn, employment-structure pressure, overcapacity, population decline, the continued concentration of resources in technology, and pressure on traditional industries remain unresolved.
Under the dual pressure from domestic and external factors, A-shares lack the foundation for a systemic bull market.

Conclusion
A brief review of the entire path: March–July saw AI investment expansion and geopolitical oil-price resonance push up growth, interest-rate, and inflation expectations; August saw periodic tension in inflation and long-term interest rates; recently, various risks have eased, inflation is expected to decline on its own, and the Federal Reserve has essentially ruled out another rate hike. Going forward, the core pricing themes for various assets will revolve around the new landscape of “cooling inflation, continued growth resilience, and long-term interest rates stabilizing at elevated levels.”$XLF ‌