Why I Don't Want to Follow the Crowd

When I look at an Event Contract, one thing I try to avoid is making a decision simply because everyone else seems to believe in the same outcome.

Market sentiment can definitely provide useful information. If a large number of people are expecting one result, it is worth understanding why. But popularity alone does not make a prediction correct.

I think the better approach is to ask questions before making a decision.

Why is the market expecting this outcome? What information is supporting it? Is there any important information that the market may be overlooking? And what could cause the opposite outcome?

Sometimes the crowd can be right, but sometimes expectations can change very quickly when new information appears.

This is why I prefer to build my own reasoning instead of blindly following what I see on social media or in the market.

For me, an Event Contract is more interesting when I can explain why I believe an outcome is possible, rather than simply saying, “Everyone thinks it will happen.”

Research first, compare both sides, and then make your own decision.

Follow information, not just the crowd.

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